We’re keeping an eye on a couple of things for the upcoming week across the nation.
First, we’ve got a low pressure area that will move across the Great Basin and into the Rockies today and Tuesday, before it heads toward the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. While this system will likely produce snow across the higher elevations (parts of Wyoming could see more than a foot), the bigger story with the system is the temperatures both ahead of it and behind it.
Temperatures are likely to run 15-20 degrees above normal across the Northern Plains today ahead of the system, shifting to the northern Great Lakes Tuesday. While these readings aren’t likely to set any records, they will be quite mild for mid-October. By the middle of the week, the warm air will settle into the Northeast, where temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the storm, temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below normal across interior California and Nevada today. That cold air will shift into the Rockies on Tuesday, where temperatures will still be 15-20 degrees below normal. As the core of the colder air moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, temperatures will be 10-18 degrees below normal, a significant change from what that region will experience today.
The other item we’re keeping an eye on are the twin low pressure areas that will impact the West Coast Friday and next Sunday. Heavy rain is expected into at least northern California, with the possibility of rain falling as far south of Los Angeles. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible along the coastal plain from British Columbia into Northern California, possibly even into the Bay Area. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, heavy snow is likely. Many locations could see more than a foot of snow.
Elsewhere, we’re not expecting much significant weather across the rest of the nation, but one other thing we’ll keep an eye on. The cooler air moving into the Plains for mid-week will make its way into the Northeast for next weekend. Some of the models are showing the possibility for some lake-effect snow downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie toward Sunday as gusty west winds bring much cooler air across the still-warm lakes.
The chart below shows a time series of the polar atmosphere from top to bottom (red is high pressure and warmer temperatures and blue low pressure and cold arctic temperatures). October previewed a December/January polar warming now underway.
That event, called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, increases surface pressures and atmospheric temperatures in the polar atmosphere. This affects one of the phenomena we watch closely in winter called the Arctic Oscillation.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a large-scale mode of climate variability featuring large- scale differences from the polar regions to mid-latitudes. The Atlantic extension of the AO called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is especially important for the Eastern United States and Western Europe. The positive AO (left side of below graphic) and NAO modes produce more westerly winds in mid latitudes that bring milder ocean air into North America from the Pacific and into Europe from the Atlantic. The negative mode (right side) sees the flow pattern buckle and pushes cold air south to middle latitudes affecting Russia, Europe and North America.
It has been a decade or so since the last such a strong Negative AO event (2009/10 and 2010/11).
The most impressive winter 2009/10 was an El Nino and its winter AO beat out the memorable 1976/77 winter for the most negative AO since 1950.
Look at the extensive polar warming and off the scale AO that winter.
The very negative AO led to record snows (a blitz that got the name Snowmaggedon) for the Mid-Atlantic, a region where Negative AO/NAO El Ninos mean business.
The winter ended with a record snow month in New York City with 36.9 inches in March.
The next winter (2010/11) was a La Nina and December and January had a negative AO though without a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. The snows were big again but were further north. New York City again was hit hard with 36 inches in January. The winter there ended up with 61.0, 3rd highest since the 1870s.
See the negative AO in December and January in 2010/11.
The AO and NAO and the cold was aided by Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland on 2010, which continued the string of high latitude eruptions that started in 2007. High latitude volcanism has been shown to lead to negative AO/NAO blocking patterns and snowstorms in Europe and the eastern U.S.
The Central England Temperature record is one of the longest continuous temperature record in the world, extending back to the Little Ice age in 1659. December 2010 was the coldest December in 120 years with an average of -0.7C just short of the record of -0.8C recorded in December 1890. It was the Second Coldest December Temperature in the entire record (352 years).
In addition to the cold, heavy snow hampered travel by air, rail, and road. In Ireland, this was the coldest start to winter in 130 years, when general records began. According to Met Eireann, Ireland’s meteorological service, December was the coldest month ever on record. County Mayo recorded low temperatures of -17.2C (+1F).
THIS JANUARY
The US model GFS is interesting later week 2 as true arctic air invades as pressures build in the arctic and sub-arctic.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is an extension of the AO. Usually they are both either positive or negative. We have documented how a negative NAO affects snow in Boston and Washington DC.
Stratospheric warming events typically last 30 days or so. When it fades, the trough should retrogress west like most La Ninas. Until then expect some harsh winter challenges. Climatology favors it. Since 1956, big December snow events were followed by 1 to 4 more such storms those winters.
Autumn and Spring are the transition seasons, and September is certainly proving that right off the bat.
Intense heat has been common across much of the West for the past few days. Temperatures well over 100 degrees have been common, with numerous records set. One location, Richmond, on the eastern side of San Francisco Bay, reached 107 degrees Monday, afternoon, tying their all-time record, originally set on September 15, 1971. Several other locations set monthly records for September as well. The worst of the heat is over, but it will remain hot on Tuesday, with highs likely topping 100 across much of interior California and the Desert Southwest, possibly setting a few more records.
Heat was also common across the Plains and Rocky Mountains over the weekend, but big changes are developing thanks to a strong cold front. Denver set a record high of 97 on Sunday, then reached 93 on Monday. On Tuesday, that 93 will get reversed with a high closer to 39. On top of that, accumulating snow is likely. Even by Denver standards, this is quite early in the year for snow. Their all-time record for earliest snow is September 3, 1961, but on average Denver doesn’t see it’s first flakes until October 18. This won’t be the 1st time that Denver hit 90 one day and then had measurable snow the next. On September 12, 1993, Denver recorded a high of 92 degrees, and on September 13, they had 5.4″ of snow.
There are 14 instances of a “major” climate station reaching 90°F one calendar day and having measurable snow the next (since 1900). Denver topped 90°F today and is forecast to have snow tomorrow. #cowxpic.twitter.com/nK7wfc7EY8
While a few inches of snow are likely in Denver and onto the adjacent High Plains of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska, heavier snow is likely across the mountains on Colorado and Wyoming. Across the higher elevations, snowfall totals in excess of a foot are likely.
While the snow gets the headlines, the cold air behind the front will be making headlines of its own. The first frost and freeze of the season is likely across the Dakotas Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning, with lows in the upper 20s and 30s. The cold air will continue to push southward across the Great Plains during the day on Tuesday, with numerous record lows expected Wednesday morning as far south as the Texas Panhandle.
While plenty of precipitation is expected across the Rockies, the lack of it is causing problems across the Northeast. Aside from a few showers with a cold front on Thursday, generally dry weather is expected across much of New England this week. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as precipitation has been generally below to well below normal across the region since the Spring. In some areas, the amount of rain has only been around 50-60% of normal. Drought conditions have developed across nearly all of New England, and for a good portion of the region, it is now considered a severe drought. What the region needs is a series of systems that can produce moderate rainfall to help alleviate the drought, but prospects for that aren’t promising at this time. In fact, rainfall looks to remain below normal for much of the remainder of September.
Meanwhile, as we approach the climatological peak of hurricane season, the Atlantic is once again getting more active. Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene both developed on Monday in the central and eastern Atlantic respectively. Paulette is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next several days while remaining over open water. It is not expected to be a threat to land. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rene moved through the Cabo Verde Islands Monday night, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. It will likely strengthen over the next couple of days, possibly becoming a hurricane later this week. Once it pulls away from the Cabo Verde Islands it is also expected to remain over open water for much of this week, presenting no additional threat to land.
Those systems aren’t the only ones in the Atlantic that are being watched. An area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles southwest of Bermuda is expected to drift westward over the next few days. Some development of the system is possible. It may bring some rainfall into parts of the Carolinas and Southeast late this week. The other area that is being watched isn’t apparent right now, as it is still over western Africa. A tropical wave is expected to emerge from the west coast of Africa late this week. Forecast models show the potential for this wave to develop rather quickly once it moves into the Atlantic. It could threaten the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend.
The peak of hurricane season is during the middle to latter half of September. Given how active this season has been so far, there will likely be more systems developing. There are only 4 names left on this list for this season – Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Once the list is exhausted, the Greek alphabet is used. This has only happened once before – in 2005. During that season, there were 28 named storms of which 15 became hurricanes.
A rather strong storm system will wreak all sorts of havoc on a large swath of the nation through the weekend and into Monday.
Low pressure is moving into the Plains states today, producing some strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Southern Plains. That’s just the start of what will be a busy few days. As the storm moves into the southern Plains tonight, showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will spread from Texas into the Mississippi Valley. To the north, snow is expected across the Central Plains. Some locations could pick up 6-12 inches this weekend in a swath from Nebraska and South Dakota into parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Easter Sunday is the day that will likely grab most of the headlines away from the pandemic for a day. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley, warm, moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and as this clashes with the cold air advancing southward behind the storm, the ingredients will be in place for a severe weather outbreak. Severe weather may be ongoing as Easter Sunday dawns across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but activity will spread eastward during the day across the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and likely numerous tornadoes. The risk will continue well into the overnight hours, especially in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western portions of the Carolinas.
By Monday, the system will move into Ontario, dragging a strong cold front across the Eastern United States. Warm, humid air will continue to flow northward ahead of this front, triggering more showers and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon from northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes, especially from the Carolinas to the Delmarva Peninsula.
To the north, heavy snow will continue behind the storm from northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Ontario. Snowfall totals of 10-20 inches or more are likely. Winds gusting to 40-50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting of the snow, with blizzard conditions at times.
In the Northeast, the big story will be the wind. Rain will be a secondary concern, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches or more possible across much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms may produce heavier downpours, especially in western New England and eastern New York, but flooding isn’t much of a concern. Precipitation has been below normal across much of the area through a good chunk of the winter and early Spring, so the region needs all the rain it can get, though maybe not quite this much at once. There will be some ponding on the roadways, and some of the smaller streams may overflow, but widespread flooding shouldn’t be a problem. The wind, on the other hand, will be a major problem.
As the system gets cranked up in Ontario, strong southerly winds will develop across the region. These will bring milder air into the region. We won’t quite reach the 90s that will set records across Florida on Monday, but 50s and 60s are still a bit above normal for mid-April around here. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher are expected as well. This will likely result in power outages as they take down trees that are starting to show their leaves, along with power lines. Winds should start to diminish during the evening as a cold front moves through, bringing an end to the rain and shifting the winds into the west.
Conditions should improve on Tuesday across the Northeast as high pressure builds in with some sunshine developing, but it will still be breezy as the now-powerful storm moves into northern Quebec, where heavy snow will likely continue.
For the third year in a row, the “M” storm in the Atlantic is prepared to wreak havoc on a populated area, but Michael isn’t the only headline maker in the weather at the moment.
Hurricane Michael isn’t the only storm in the news, but it is the biggest threat at the moment. As of early Tuesday afternoon, Michael was centered about 335 miles south of Panama City, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, making Michael a Category 2 Hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches surrounding the Hurricane Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida into South Carolina.
Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, likely as a Category 3 storm. Strong winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge, and some tornadoes are all possible with this storm. Unlike Florence, which hung around the Carolinas for days and dumped incredible amounts of rainfall on the region, Michael is expected to keep moving at a steady pace, emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are still expected in parts of the region, which will produce flooding in some areas, especially in Carolinas, where many areas are still recovering from Florence. Right along the coast, a storm surge of 6-12 feet is possible, especially in the Big Bend area of Florida. Fortunately, this area is not heavily populated, but for the residents that do live in this area, storm surge flooding is a significant threat.
This is the 3rd year in a row that the “M” storm is expected to result in significant damage to a populated area. In 2014, Category 5 Hurricane Matthew left a path of death and destruction across parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually parts of the southeastern United States. Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Maria devastated the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. While Michael is not expected to become a Category 5 storm, it is still expected to result in significant damage to parts of Florida and the Southeast.
Meanwhile, in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Leslie refuses to go away. As of midday Tuesday, Leslie was centered a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores, moving toward the south-southeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. The forecast for Leslie calls for a turn more toward the east over the next few days while it strengthens back into a hurricane. Leslie is expected to remain over open waters for the next few days, and could become an extratropical storm this weekend while continuing on a general easterly track.
To the south, Tropical Storm Nadine as formed nearly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Nadine has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Nadine is expected to remain fairly weak over open waters for the next several days while turning more toward the northwest. As it moves over colder water late this week and this weekend, it should weaken and eventually dissipate.
Back in the United States, unseasonably warm conditions remain in place across much of the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s across much of the region, which is 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A strong frontal system is located in the Plains states this afternoon, separating the warm air in the East, from much cooler weather behind it in the Plains and the Rockies. Right along this front, which hasn’t moved much for the past 24 hours, severe weather and heavy rainfall are common this afternoon.
Several tornadoes have been reported already today, including a few in the Oklahoma City area, and more are expected later today and tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected from Texas into the Central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier may produce flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.
On the other side of the front, where much cooler weather is in place, rain is expected to change over to snow as low pressure rides along the front and into the Midwest. Winter weather advisories have already been posted for parts of the region. Snow is already falling in parts of Colorado this afternoon, and several inches may fall over the next 36-48 hours from western portions of Kansas and Nebraska into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.
The “Dog Days of Summer” have arrived, with heat and humidity across a large part of the nation. Meanwhile, severe weather is possible across the Midwest on Friday.
A weather pattern that is both typical and atypical of summer at the same time is going to settle into the nation over the next several days. The typical part is that we’ll have a ridge of high pressure off the East Coast, and another one in the Southwest. The ridge off the East Coast will result in heat and humidity up and down the coastline for the next several days. The ridge in the Southwest will bring very hot conditions to the Southwest and especially the Southern Plains, where record highs are expected over the next several days. The Atypical part is across the Midwest. Normally, in between the two ridges of high pressure you’d have a trough of low pressure, but in this case, we actually have a closed upper-level low pressure system. While these are common in the fall, winter, and spring, they usually don’t occur much in the summer. This will bring cooler than normal conditions into the Midwest for the next few days.
While hot weather is expected across Texas and the Southwest during the summer, the ridge of high pressure that is currently setting up across the region will bring in temperatures that are well above normal. In fact, record highs are expected for the next several days across much of Texas, as temperatures soar past 100 across much of the state, with some locations possibly exceeding 110 degrees. The heat won’t be confined to the Lone Star State, with triple-digit highs also expected from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains as well as parts of Colorado and New Mexico. There won’t be much, if any, relief at night either, as low temperatures will stay in the 70s, with many locations, especially urban areas like the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex likely not dropping below 80 degrees for low temperatures.
As we head into next week, the heat will ease a bit across Texas and the Southern Plains, but the core of the intense heat will shift westward into the Desert Southwest. High temperatures will top 110 degrees across much of the area for the first half of next week, with the usual hot spots such as Lake Havasu City, Arizona; Laughlin, Nevada; and Death Valley, California likely exceed 120 degrees during some of the afternoons. Highs will also top 100 across much of interior California once again.
While the Texas and the Southwest deal with extreme heat, the East Coast will get a little bit of relief from what has been a hot start to summer. While temperatures will still be a little above normal this weekend into much of next week, highs will only be in the 80s to lower 90s. While the temperatures won’t be that bad, humidity levels will. With high pressure anchored off the East Coast, a southerly flow will help moisture stream northward from the tropics right up the East Coast this weekend and into much of next week. Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and 70s across the region, so even though temperatures may not be hot, it will feel oppressive across much of the region.
With a warm and humid airmass in place for much of the week, it won’t take much for showers and thunderstorms to develop each day. With plenty of available moisture, some of these storms will end up producing very heavy rainfall. While the map above is a forecast that shows widespread coverage of heavy rain, in many cases, the storms will be very localized. Some locations could get hit by slow-moving thunderstorms over and over, while other spots a few miles away get little to no rainfall. Across the Mid-Atlantic States, where heavy rain led to flooding during the Spring, similar conditions are possible again for the next week. Across the Northeast, things are a little different.
Much of the Spring has been very dry across New England and New York. Localized thunderstorms have brought heavy rain to a few spots, especially earlier this week, but overall, rainfall has been well below normal across the area. Some relief will come this weekend. A weak low pressure system will move across the region late Saturday into Sunday as an upper-level low pressure system moves into the Midwest. The surface low will bring heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Southern New England and southeastern New York. The heaviest rain is expected late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, so neither day should be a washout. Once that system moves by, a warm and humid airmass will settle in, with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms this week.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least next weekend and possibly even longer. While none of the models are showing development of any systems in the tropics right now, this is the type of pattern that is conducive to storms impacting the East Coast. The tropics have been fairly quiet so far this season, and a relatively quiet season is expected, especially compared to last year. However, should something develop in or near the Bahamas, it wouldn’t take much for it to impact the East Coast with relatively little lead time. In 1991, a tropical depression developed in the Bahamas on August 16, 48 hours later it was a Category 3 Hurricane named Bob brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina before slamming into Southern New England as a Category 2 storm 12 hours after that.
While Texas bakes and the East Coast sweats, an upper-level low pressure area will settle into the Midwest. With the clash in airmasses along a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some of these storms will become strong to severe on Friday, especially across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The main threats with any storms that develop will be strong winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall that could trigger flash flooding. Some tornadoes are also possible. The storms may start during the morning closer to the Great Lakes, with the afternoon and evening seeing the most widespread activity across the region. While activity should weaken at night, the threat of severe weather will continue across southern and eastern parts of the region.
As we get into the final days of June and prepare to flip the calendar to July, a heat wave is about to grip a large portion of the nation.
Heat and humidity are already in place across much of the nation’s mid-section. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect across the eastern Plains and much of the Mississippi Valley on Friday. High temperatures will be in the 90s and lower 100s across the region. When you add in dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, heat indices will range from 100-115 degrees across much of the area during the afternoon.
The heat will spread to the East Coast today, with very hot conditions expected for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will soar well into the 90s across much of the East, with dewpoints slowly creeping up over the next few days. Right now, Sunday looks like the hottest day, with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 90s across the heavily-populated I-95 corridor. Relief will be found right along the coastline, where seabreezes may keep temperatures in the 80s.
Some changes start to happen towards late Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will start to approach the Northeast. This may produce a few showers and thunderstorms, especially across parts of New England, with some relief from the heat across Northern New England behind the front. There are questions as to how far south this front will get before it dissipates however. Odds are that it dissipates before reaching the New York City area, but if it washes out across central New England, then the heat will continue across southern New England right through the Fourth of July and possibly the end of the week. Across the Mid-Atlantic states, especially from New York City down to Washington, hot and humid conditions should continue for much of the week.
The ridge of high pressure aloft responsible for the heat across the East will start to spread westward as we head towards the middle of the week. This will have several implications. In the East, it will allow the heat to begin to ease. With winds becoming more northwest aloft, disturbances will be able to drop down from Canada, bringing in some much needed shower and thunderstorm activity, along with some slightly cooler conditions. This will also allow the heat to spread back into the Mississippi Valley and the Plains states. High temperatures will be back into the 90s and lower 100s across the area as the ridge moves back into the area.