Category: Heavy Rain/Snow

Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but we’ve got a multi-day severe weather outlook to start the upcoming week.

A low pressure system will move across the Southern Plains states today, producing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may become strong to severe from parts of central Texas northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The main threat with these storms will be large hail, but some storms may also produce strong winds, heavy downpours, and tornadoes. This is just the start of what is to come.

A stronger storm will develop across the central Rockies on Tuesday, heading toward the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a very large area as warm, humid air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the storm and much colder air settles southward from Canada behind it. That airmass may produce some record highs across southern Texas during Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s across the Rio Grande Valley.

On Tuesday the severe weather threat exists from eastern Texas and the eastern Plains States into much of the Mississippi Valley. By Thursday, the threat will shift eastward slightly, continuing across the Mississippi Valley, and spread into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Many storms will produce large hail, damaging winds, torrential downpours, and tornadoes.  The threat will shift into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states by Thursday, but on a more limited basis.

To the north, as the system moves into Northern Plains later Tuesday, snow will develop in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota as well as south-central Canada. Snow will become heavy and winds will increase, resulting in blizzard conditions across parts of the region, The system will slow down, with snow and gusty winds continuing through the day on Wednesday and possibly into early Thursday. Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet are possible in parts of the region, but wind gusts of up to 50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting snow.

Behind the storm, a much colder airmass will settle into Rockies and Plains states, Temperatures will be as much as 15 to 30 degrees below normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Some record lows are possible in parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains during the latter half of the week as temperatures drop into the single numbers and teens across a large area.

Out West, a series of low pressure systems will bring heavy rain and mountain snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California this week. The first system moves in today and will be the strongest one, and will eventually become the system mentioned above that produces severe weather and blizzard conditions across the nation’s mid-section. A second system follows for Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by a third one on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier are possible, especially near the coast from southern Washington into northern California. Heavy snow is likely across the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, as well as the coastal ranges. Many places could pick up anywhere from 1-3 feet of snow, with parts of the Cascades likely receiving even more than 3 feet. Across the Inland northwest, many places could see more than a foot of snow as the system pushes inland. It’s been a very dry winter for the most part across the West, so the rain and snow will be welcome news across the region as the dry season is quickly approaching.

A rather active week is expected, especially across the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

Low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast today, providing a variety of weather for the eastern half of the nation. The most impactful weather will be strong to severe thunderstorms, especially from the Deep South across the Tennessee Valley and into the Appalachians. Some of the storms may produce damaging winds, heavy downpours, and possibly tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather, heavy rain is expected across the Ohio Valley. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier are expected, resulting in Flood Watches being issued for much of the region.

Ahead of the storm, unseasonably warm weather will remain in place today from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast. High temperatures should reach 80 or higher from Washington, D.C. southward, with 70s into the Mid-Atlantic states. Dozens of record highs are expected to be set once again.

Later this week, another low pressure system is expected to develop across the West. It will bring a snowstorm to parts of the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains states. Snowfall totals of 4-8 inches will be widespread, with many locations, especially at the higher elevations, possibly seeing more than a foot. Snowfall has been below normal across the region this year, and parts of the region rely on the snowmelt for water in the spring/summer, so any snow that falls now is welcome.

Once it moves away from the Rockies, that system could become a rather potent storm system as it heads eastward. Ahead of the system, heavy rain and possibly more severe weather may impact parts of the Gulf Coast, Deep South, and Southeast towards the end of the week and into the weekend, with heavy snow possible north and west of the system from the Plains states into the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. There are some indications that it could become rather strong as it moves into the Northeast, with the potential for strong winds across much of the East Coast. This will be something to keep an eye on later this week.

A rather active pattern is expected across the nation during the upcoming week.

Low pressure will move into the southern Plains today, heading toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday, then up the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday night, producing a variety of weather across the eastern two thirds of the nation. As it draws warm and humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it will produce some heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, across parts of southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today and tonight, with the heavy rain and severe weather threat shifting into Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Many areas could see 1-2 inches of rain, with heavier amounts possible, which could lead to flooding in some areas. Unseasonably mild weather is also likely ahead of the storm, with some record highs possible in the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. A few record highs are also possible in the Northeast during Tuesday and Wednesday and warmer air surges northward ahead of the system.

To the north, the storm will produce heavy snow and gusty winds, resulting in near-blizzard conditions at times from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Snowfall totals of 5-10 inches are possible in parts of the Dakotas today into Tuesday, but in the Great Lakes, many areas could see a foot or more. Once the snow ends, arctic air will settle into the region. Temperatures will drop below zero each night this week across most of the Northern and Central Plains and the Upper Midwest, with record lows possible in many locations. Temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees below normal through Wednesday before some moderation begins.

Later in the week, we’ll do it all over again. Low pressure will move out of the Southern Plains and toward the Ohio Valley on Thursday, before redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Ahead of the storm, some heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Deep South and the Mid-Atlantic states, with more record highs possible across parts of the Southeast. The difference this time is with a track farther to the south compared to the early-week storm, the threat for wintry weather will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The exact track will determine what areas get all snow and what areas see a mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain, but areas that remain all snow have the potential for 6 or more inches of accumulation.

While the pattern will remain quiet for much of the nation to start the week, a significant storm may impact a large portion of the nation later this week with a variety of weather.

A low pressure system will bring some rain and higher elevation snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin over the next day or two, but its biggest impacts will be felt later this week. as it moves into the nation’s mid-section on Wednesday, it will start to draw warm and humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a large high pressure area will bring colder air into the Northern Plains. As these airmasses clash, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms developing ahead of the system. Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southern Plains and Texas late Wednesday, with the severe weather threat shifting into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday, reaching the Deep South and the Southeast by Thursday night.

To the north of the storm, a narrow strip of heavy snow is possible from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes, possibly including the Chicago area. Many locations in this region could see 6 or more inches of snow from storm. Ahead of the storm, heavy rain is likely across the eastern half of the nation during Thursday and Friday.  Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier are likely from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with some heavier amounts possible.

In addition to the heavy precipitation, unseasonably warm air is expected ahead of the storm. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal on Wednesday from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. By Thursday, the warm air shifts to the East Coast, with temperatures likely to be 15-25 degrees above normal from the Southeast and the Ohio Valley into New England, where a few record highs are possible.

Meanwhile, up in Alaska, bitterly cold air remains locked in place across the northern half of the state. Temperatures will be 15-30 degrees below normal over the next couple of days. Wind Chill Warnings are in effect along the North Slope and the Arctic Coast, where wind chills of 40-70 below zero are possible today and Tuesday. However, changes are coming. A powerful Pacific storm will approach the state, and although it won’t be as strong as it currently is, it’s main impact will be to dislodge the cold air, and result in a significant temperature rise across the state. By the end of the week, temperatures could be 5-10 degrees or more above normal across a large portion of Alaska.