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The Week Ahead: December 27, 2021 – January 2, 2022

A rather active week is expected across the nation, with heavy rain and snow in the West and the Rockies, record heat and potentially severe weather in the South, and heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures for the Northern Plains.

A frontal system extended from coast to coast separates unseasonably warm air to the south from colder air to the north. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move across the Northern Plains and into southern Canada today, with heavy snow across the Dakotas and into Minnesota as well as parts of Manitoba and Ontario. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect on the US side of the border, with Snowfall Warnings on the Canadian side. Snowfall won’t be exceptionally heavy, but many locations will pick up 6-12 inches. gusts of 35-45 mph are possible, which may result in near-blizzard conditions at times. Snow should wind down tonight, but another system passing south of the region on Tuesday may bring more snow into the region.

Moderate to heavy snow is likely over the next few days in the Dakotas and parts of the Upper Midwest. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Later in the week, bitterly cold air will drop southward from Canada into parts of the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies, as well as the interior Northwest. Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below normal across the interior Northwest, and as much as 20 to 40 degrees below normal in parts of Montana, the Dakotas, and northern Minnesota. Daytime highs will likely stay below zero for several days near the Canadian border, with low temperatures as low as 20 to 30 degrees below zero in parts of Montana and North Dakota.

The GFS shows the clash between bitterly cold air to the north and unseasonably warm air to the south right through the week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

While bitterly cold air settles into the North, unseasonably warm weather is expected across the South. High temperatures will reach the 70s and 80s from Texas to the Southeast over the next several days, which is 20 to 30 degrees above normal. Dozens of record highs are likely to be set across the region.

Low pressure will move into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. With a warm, humid airmass in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the system. Conditions could be ripe for some severe weather Wednesday into early Thursday, especially in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Severe weather is possible across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South on Wednesday. Image provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, out West, heavy rain and snow will continue across the region. With colder air in place, snow was observed right to the coastline in parts of Washington and Oregon on Sunday. The Seattle metropolitan area received 3-6 inches of snow, with 1-2 inches in the Portland area. As the low pressure area that produced the snow moves inland, more snow is likely, especially in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with rain into the lower elevations of California. Another system will follow right behind, with more heavy rain and mountain snow for the West Coast later this week. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier will result in flooding in some areas, especially Southern California. Across the Sierra Nevada, snowfall totals of 3 to 6 feet are possible.

Heavy rain is expected across the West this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Right now, First Night festivities in New York City shouldn’t have any weather problems. In fact, it looks rather nice for revelers heading to Times Square to watch the ball drop. Right now, it looks like skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures around 40 degrees at midnight Friday night.

The Week Ahead: December 20-26, 2021

As we approach Christmas, a stormy pattern will continue across the West while another warmup is expected in the Plains.

Much of the US is quiet to start the week. Image provided by NOAA.

Rain and mountain snow will continue from the Northwest into the Northern Rockies today as low pressure moves across the region, but drier weather should settle in for Tuesday. After that, a series of low pressure areas will bring heavy rain and mountain snow to much of the West from Wednesday into the weekend. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and locally heavier are likely from British Columbia southward to southern California, which will likely lead to flooding in some areas by late in the week. The bigger story will be the snow in the mountains. The snowpack in the Sierra and Cascades is still below normal, but that is likely to change later this week. The potential exists for some places to receive as much as 5 to 10 FEET of snow over the next 7 days. This will result in travel problems crossing the mountains. By the end of the week, as colder air settles into the Northwest, snow is possible at the lower elevations, including the Seattle and Portland metropolitan areas.

Heavy snow is expected across the West later this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The other thing we’re watching is the return of warm weather to the Southern Plains and parts of the South and East later this week. By the middle of the week, temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above normal across the central and southern Plains. That warm will spread eastward, but will be modified a bit as it does so, with well above normal temperatures moving toward the East by the end of the week. A few records are possible across parts of the region. Another burst of warm air may move back into the Southern Plains and Texas next weekend.

Unseasonably warm weather returns to the Plains and the South this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Meanwhile, bitterly cold air will build across western Canada this week. Temperatures could be as much as 25 to 50 degrees below normal in many areas later this week. Daytime highs of -30 to -40C are possible in parts of the Yukon, Northwest Territories and northern British Columbia. Some of that arctic air may spill southward into parts of Montana and the Dakotas for Christmas weekend.

The Week Ahead: December 13-19, 2021

Stormy weather will return to the West Coast over the next few days, and could spread into the Northern Plains later this week.

Low pressure is bringing unsettled weather to parts of the West. Image provided by NOAA.

A low pressure system will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow to much of the West over the next few days, with a second system following for Tuesday into Wednesday. It has been relatively dry across the region recently, so the rainfall is welcome, but amounts could be excessive in spots. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be fairly widespread, but some locations, especially along the California coast, could see upwards of 3-5 inches of rain. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Golden State. The rain will be accompanied by strong winds, which will be widespread not only along the West Coast, but well inland into the Great Basin and parts of the Southwest. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph will be common, with Wind Advisories in effect for many locations. The storm will also produce heavy snowfall across the mountains of the West, especially the Sierra Nevada, where snowfall totals of 2-4 feet or more are expected.

Heavy rainfall is likely across much of the West over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By mid-week, the storm will redevelop east of the Rockies, and head northeastward across the Plains States toward the Upper Midwest. It may produce some light to moderate snow from the Central and Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, but the bigger story will be the strong winds it generates across the Plains States and into the Mississippi Valley. The potential exists for widespread wind gusts of 50-70 mph or stronger. In the Northern Plains, when you combine the winds with the snowfall, blizzard conditions are possible in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Wednesday into Thursday. The system may also generate more severe weather ahead of it from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later Wednesday into Thursday.

Strong winds are possible across much of the nation’s midsection Wednesday into Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The other big story will be the temperatures on either side of this storm system. Unseasonably mild weather is already in place across much of the nation today, but that’s just a taste of what is coming. On Tuesday, temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above normal across most of the Plains States and the Mississippi Valley, with some records possible. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in this region, with dozens of records expected. Temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s, which is 15 to as much as 35-degrees above normal. The warm weather will shift into the eastern third of the nation for the latter half of the week, where temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above normal.

Dozens of record highs are likely across the Central US on Wednesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind the system, much cooler weather will settle into the West for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping to 8 to 15 degrees below normal. The cooler air will shift into the Northern Plains by Thursday, and across the rest of the Plains for the end of the week, with temperatures running as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

The Week Ahead: December 6-12, 2021

The weather pattern is fairly active across the nation right now, and there are several areas we’re keeping an eye on.

The pattern has become very active over the past several days across the nation. Image provided by NOAA.

We’ll start off in the Pacific, where a low pressure system will bring a wide variety of impacts to the Hawaiian Islands today and tomorrow. Heavy rain will lead to widespread flooding across the islands, with strong winds also creating damage. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier are expected through Wednesday. Flood Watches are in effect for much of the region. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are also in effect, for sustained winds of 20-40 mph, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. Along west-facing shorelines, waves of 8 to 12 feet will batter the beaches, where High Surf Advisories are in effect. If that wasn’t enough, across the higher summits of the Big Island, a Blizzard Warning remains in effect. Heavy snow will continue this morning with several more inches of accumulation possible. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting as high as 80 mph, resulting in blizzard conditions.

Very heavy rain is likely across the Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Next, we’ll stay in the Pacific, but head northward to Alaska. A strong low pressure system is sitting just west of the the state early this morning, and it is having a significant impact on the region. Blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of western and southern Alaska. Heavy snow will be accompanied by winds gusting as high as 70 mph. The strong winds, combined with astronomically high tides, will result in flooding along the coast as well. Heavy snow is also likely for many locations, with up to 8-16 inches for many areas, and even more in some spots. Across the higher elevations, several feet of snow are expected. The only positive to this is that the brutally cold weather that much of the state experienced in November has been replaced by temperatures that are well above normal, though bitterly cold air will likely return behind this storm system.

A powerful storm system will impact Alaska over the next few days. Image provided by NOAA.

Across the Lower 48 States, the low pressure system moving into the Mississippi Valley this morning will garner the most attention today. It produced heavy snow in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. It will move into southern Canada today, dragging a strong cold front eastward. Ahead of the front, unseasonably mild air is expected across the East Coast, with temperatures topping 60 as far north as New England, and 70s into the Mid-Atlantic states. The warmth will be accompanied by some showers and gusty winds. Wind advisories are in effect for parts of the Northeast. Along the Gulf Coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front. Some of the storms may produce strong winds, hail, heavy downpours, and possibly a few tornadoes.

Severe weather is possible in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Another system will quickly follow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty with the evolution of this second storm, but it has the potential to bring the first accumulating snow of the season to the I-95 corridor. While heavy snow seems unlikely at this point, some light to perhaps moderate accumulations are possible, which would result in travel issues for the heavily-populated region.

There is not a lot of agreement among the forecast models on what impacts the midweek storm will have and where they will be. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The other area we’re watching is the Southern Plains and Texas. After some record warmth over the past several days, cooler weather will settle in today and into Tuesday. However, another big warmup is expected later this week. Some record high temperatures are possible across the region on Thursday, but Friday looks to be the warmest day, with numerous records likely to be broken as highs soar well into the 70s and 80s, with 90s possible in southern Texas.

Numerous record high temperatures are in jeopardy by Friday as very warm air settles into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

On the flip side, very chilly air will settle into the Dakotas and Minnesota today in the wake of yesterday’s snowstorm. High temperatures will only reach the single numbers for parts of the region today, with some locations possibly staying below zero all day. Temperatures should start to moderate by tomorrow across the area.

The Week Ahead: November 29 – December 5, 2021

Once again, a majority of the nation will be spared from major storminess during much of the upcoming week.

The week is starting off without any significant storm systems on the surface map. Image provided by NOAA.

As is typically the case at this time of year, the Northwest will be the exception to the rule when it comes to quiet conditions. As one system pulls away from the region today, another one will move in from the Pacific later Tuesday into Wednesday with rain, some of it heavy, and higher elevation snow in parts of Washington and Oregon. While this rainfall won’t be anywhere near the magnitude of some recent storms, some locations, especially in the Olympic Peninsula, could see 1-3 inches of rain, which may lead to some flooding.

Some heavy rain is possible across parts of Washington State on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The other main story this week will be unseasonably warm weather for a large portion of the nation, especially west of the Mississippi River, for the next several days. Much of this region will have temperatures that are 15 to 30 degrees above normal through at least Thursday or Friday. Dozens of record highs are likely to be set from the Plains states into the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, especially Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures could top 70 as far north as parts of South Dakota and Wyoming by Thursday.

Unseasonably warm weather is expected across much of the nation this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

A cold front will drop southward out of Canada toward the end of the week, bringing an end to the warm spell. A wave of low pressure riding along the front may produce some light to perhaps moderate snow from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes next weekend.

The Week Ahead: November 15-21, 2021

A quiet weather pattern is expected for a large portion of the nation for much of the upcoming week.

There are several frontal systems on the surface map to start the week, but no big storms. Image provided by NOAA.

A low pressure system moving in from the Pacific will bring some heavy rain, higher elevation snow, and strong winds to the Northwest and Northern Rockies over the next few days. Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for parts of western Washington. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier are expected in parts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet are likely, with some heavier amounts. As the system pushes inland, valley rain and mountain snow will move into the Northern Rockies, where snowfall totals of 4-8 inches and locally heavier are possible. The bigger story here will be strong winds for Monday and Tuesday. High Wind Watches and Warnings are in effect for much of the region. Sustained winds of 20-40 mph are likely, especially in parts of Montana and Wyoming, with gusts of 50-70 mph common. Along the Rocky Mountain Front in Montana, some gusts could approach 100 mph. The system will make its way eastward along the US/Canada border during the week, with a frontal system trailing the system producing some light rain or snow, especially as it reaches the East Coast by late in the week.

Strong winds are expected from the Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Temperatures both ahead of and behind that system will be the other big story this week. Temperatures ahead of this system will be 15-25 degrees above normal across much of the West on Monday, shifting into the Rockies and the Plains on Tuesday, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Wednesday, and reaching the East Coast by Thursday. Some record highs are possible on Monday in parts on the Southwest and also in the Plains on Monday, with several records possible on Tuesday from the Southern Plains into the Texas Panhandle. Behind the system, much cooler weather is expected. While temperatures won’t be exceptionally cold, they’ll be 5-10 degrees below normal for a day or two before moderating once again.

The GFS shows the warm air progressing across the nation followed by much cooler weather. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

A preliminary look at the weather for travel the day before Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Day doesn’t show much in the way of impactful conditions at this point, but a weak system could bring some light rain or snow to areas from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

The Week Ahead: November 8-14, 2021

A low pressure system moving into the West Coast today will impact the weather across much of the nation during the upcoming week.

The low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will be the big weather-maker this week. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move out of the Pacific and into the West Coast over the next day or two, spreading rain, some of it heavy, into the Pacific Northwest as well as northern and central portions of California. While this storm will be nowhere near the magnitude of some of the storms they’ve already seen this year, rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier in some areas may result in localized flooding. The rian will be accompanied by gusty winds. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings have been issued for parts of the region. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be common, possibly resulting in damage and power outages in some areas. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada, heavy snow is likely, with many areas receiving more than a foot by the time everything winds down later Tuesday.

Heavy rain is expected across parts of the Northwest and California over the next day or two. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This system will weaken a bit as it moves into the Rockies by midweek, where several inches of snow is still expected. By Thursday, the system will intensify again as it moves into the Plains states. As it draws in some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it could produce some severe weather across parts of the Central and Southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley ;ater Wednesday and Thursday. To the north, it will likely produce the first snowstorm of the season across the Dakotas and into parts of Minnesota late this week. Snowfall totals of 3-6 inches will be possible in parts of the region.

Several inches of snow may fall in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By the end of the week, the low pressure system will stall out near the Great Lakes, but ahead of it, a frontal system will draw moisture northward, bringing a period of heavy rain from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast from Friday into Saturday.

The other thing we’re paying attention to this week will be the temperature swing we’re expecting. Temperatures will run 6-12 degrees above normal across parts of the Plains states eastward to the Great Lakes over the next couple of days before the core of the milder air shifts to the East Coast later this week. Meanwhile, behind the storm system, a pool of cooler air, with readings of 4-8 degrees below normal, will move into the West during the next 2-3 days. By the time that air moves into the Plains it will intensify with temperatures running 6-12 degrees below normal across the Plains on Friday and further east by next weekend.

Mild air dominates the nation at the start of the week, but much cooler air eventually settles in. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Taking a quick look ahead to the following week, there are some indications that a much cooler weather pattern may move into parts of the central and eastern US for the middle of the month.

The Week Ahead: November 1-7, 2021

After a fairly active week last week, a much more quiet pattern is expected for the upcoming week.

The most noteworthy feature on the weather map this morning is the strong cold front from the Great Lakes to Texas, Image provided by NOAA.

The biggest thing we’re keeping an eye on this week is the cold air that will spread across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. A strong cold front will move off the East Coast Monday morning, with the tail end of the front stalling out from the Carolinas to northern Texas. Behind this front, much cooler air has already settled into parts of the Plains states and Mississippi Valley, and it will continue to spread eastward. A series of weak cold fronts dropping out of Canada will help to usher progressively cooler into parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states as well. Temperatures will be 6-12 degrees below normal from the Northern and Central Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest for Monday and Tuesday, with the core of the colder air shifting into the region from the Southern Plains into the eastern Great Lakes for Wednesday into Friday, and the East Coast next weekend. A few record lows may be set, but widespread records are not anticipated. However, with this cold airmass settling in, the first frost and/or freeze of the fall will be possible from parts of the Deep South into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states later this week.

The GFS model shows the progression of the colder air across the nation over the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we’re entering the final month of hurricane season, and although October was quiet for the most part, November is not starting off that way. The storm system that produce heavy rain and significant wind damage across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast last Tuesday and Wednesday moved out to sea and passed south of Atlantic Canada over the past several days. During the weekend it turned southward, moved over warmer water, and began to transition from a cold-core system to a warm-core system. Early Sunday it was designated as Subtropical Storm Wanda. It is in the middle of the Atlantic, nearly 1000 miles west of the Azores with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. While it remains over marginally warmer waters, it may complete the transition into a tropical system and strengthen a bit more over the next day or two. Later this week, the most likely scenario is for it to head northeastward over colder water, transition back into an extratropical system, possibly bringing some rainfall and gusty winds to the British Isles next weekend. However, there are some models that show the storm turning back toward the south, and possibly impact the Azores by next weekend.

Forecast model tracks for Subtropical Storm Wanda. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Elsewhere, as is usually the case as we get into this time of year, a series of storm systems will bring heavy rain and mountain snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, as well as parts of northern California. None of these systems will be as extreme as the storm that impacted California last week, but they will bring beneficial rainfall to the region.

Beneficial rain is expected across the Northwest later this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The only other item of note for the week ahead is the potential for the first snowflakes of the season later this week east of the Great Lakes and into the higher elevations of the Northeast and New England. Any accumulations would be light, but they would be (in most cases), the first snow of the season, which is noteworthy in and of itself.

The Week Ahead: October 18-24, 2021

We’re keeping an eye on a couple of things for the upcoming week across the nation.

First, we’ve got a low pressure area that will move across the Great Basin and into the Rockies today and Tuesday, before it heads toward the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. While this system will likely produce snow across the higher elevations (parts of Wyoming could see more than a foot), the bigger story with the system is the temperatures both ahead of it and behind it.

Parts of Wyoming could see more than a foot of snow over the next few days. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

Temperatures are likely to run 15-20 degrees above normal across the Northern Plains today ahead of the system, shifting to the northern Great Lakes Tuesday. While these readings aren’t likely to set any records, they will be quite mild for mid-October. By the middle of the week, the warm air will settle into the Northeast, where temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the storm, temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below normal across interior California and Nevada today. That cold air will shift into the Rockies on Tuesday, where temperatures will still be 15-20 degrees below normal. As the core of the colder air moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, temperatures will be 10-18 degrees below normal, a significant change from what that region will experience today.

The GFS model shows the temperature anomalies over the next few days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

The other item we’re keeping an eye on are the twin low pressure areas that will impact the West Coast Friday and next Sunday. Heavy rain is expected into at least northern California, with the possibility of rain falling as far south of Los Angeles. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible along the coastal plain from British Columbia into Northern California, possibly even into the Bay Area. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, heavy snow is likely. Many locations could see more than a foot of snow.

Heavy rain is expected across the West Coast at the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Elsewhere, we’re not expecting much significant weather across the rest of the nation, but one other thing we’ll keep an eye on. The cooler air moving into the Plains for mid-week will make its way into the Northeast for next weekend. Some of the models are showing the possibility for some lake-effect snow downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie toward Sunday as gusty west winds bring much cooler air across the still-warm lakes.