Category: Severe Weather

A rather active week is expected, especially across the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

Low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast today, providing a variety of weather for the eastern half of the nation. The most impactful weather will be strong to severe thunderstorms, especially from the Deep South across the Tennessee Valley and into the Appalachians. Some of the storms may produce damaging winds, heavy downpours, and possibly tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather, heavy rain is expected across the Ohio Valley. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier are expected, resulting in Flood Watches being issued for much of the region.

Ahead of the storm, unseasonably warm weather will remain in place today from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast. High temperatures should reach 80 or higher from Washington, D.C. southward, with 70s into the Mid-Atlantic states. Dozens of record highs are expected to be set once again.

Later this week, another low pressure system is expected to develop across the West. It will bring a snowstorm to parts of the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains states. Snowfall totals of 4-8 inches will be widespread, with many locations, especially at the higher elevations, possibly seeing more than a foot. Snowfall has been below normal across the region this year, and parts of the region rely on the snowmelt for water in the spring/summer, so any snow that falls now is welcome.

Once it moves away from the Rockies, that system could become a rather potent storm system as it heads eastward. Ahead of the system, heavy rain and possibly more severe weather may impact parts of the Gulf Coast, Deep South, and Southeast towards the end of the week and into the weekend, with heavy snow possible north and west of the system from the Plains states into the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. There are some indications that it could become rather strong as it moves into the Northeast, with the potential for strong winds across much of the East Coast. This will be something to keep an eye on later this week.

A rather active pattern is expected across the nation during the upcoming week.

Low pressure will move into the southern Plains today, heading toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday, then up the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday night, producing a variety of weather across the eastern two thirds of the nation. As it draws warm and humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it will produce some heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, across parts of southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today and tonight, with the heavy rain and severe weather threat shifting into Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Many areas could see 1-2 inches of rain, with heavier amounts possible, which could lead to flooding in some areas. Unseasonably mild weather is also likely ahead of the storm, with some record highs possible in the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. A few record highs are also possible in the Northeast during Tuesday and Wednesday and warmer air surges northward ahead of the system.

To the north, the storm will produce heavy snow and gusty winds, resulting in near-blizzard conditions at times from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Snowfall totals of 5-10 inches are possible in parts of the Dakotas today into Tuesday, but in the Great Lakes, many areas could see a foot or more. Once the snow ends, arctic air will settle into the region. Temperatures will drop below zero each night this week across most of the Northern and Central Plains and the Upper Midwest, with record lows possible in many locations. Temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees below normal through Wednesday before some moderation begins.

Later in the week, we’ll do it all over again. Low pressure will move out of the Southern Plains and toward the Ohio Valley on Thursday, before redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Ahead of the storm, some heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Deep South and the Mid-Atlantic states, with more record highs possible across parts of the Southeast. The difference this time is with a track farther to the south compared to the early-week storm, the threat for wintry weather will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The exact track will determine what areas get all snow and what areas see a mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain, but areas that remain all snow have the potential for 6 or more inches of accumulation.

While the pattern will remain quiet for much of the nation to start the week, a significant storm may impact a large portion of the nation later this week with a variety of weather.

A low pressure system will bring some rain and higher elevation snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin over the next day or two, but its biggest impacts will be felt later this week. as it moves into the nation’s mid-section on Wednesday, it will start to draw warm and humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a large high pressure area will bring colder air into the Northern Plains. As these airmasses clash, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms developing ahead of the system. Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southern Plains and Texas late Wednesday, with the severe weather threat shifting into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday, reaching the Deep South and the Southeast by Thursday night.

To the north of the storm, a narrow strip of heavy snow is possible from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes, possibly including the Chicago area. Many locations in this region could see 6 or more inches of snow from storm. Ahead of the storm, heavy rain is likely across the eastern half of the nation during Thursday and Friday.  Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier are likely from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with some heavier amounts possible.

In addition to the heavy precipitation, unseasonably warm air is expected ahead of the storm. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal on Wednesday from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. By Thursday, the warm air shifts to the East Coast, with temperatures likely to be 15-25 degrees above normal from the Southeast and the Ohio Valley into New England, where a few record highs are possible.

Meanwhile, up in Alaska, bitterly cold air remains locked in place across the northern half of the state. Temperatures will be 15-30 degrees below normal over the next couple of days. Wind Chill Warnings are in effect along the North Slope and the Arctic Coast, where wind chills of 40-70 below zero are possible today and Tuesday. However, changes are coming. A powerful Pacific storm will approach the state, and although it won’t be as strong as it currently is, it’s main impact will be to dislodge the cold air, and result in a significant temperature rise across the state. By the end of the week, temperatures could be 5-10 degrees or more above normal across a large portion of Alaska.

A rather active week is expected across the nation, with heavy rain and snow in the West and the Rockies, record heat and potentially severe weather in the South, and heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures for the Northern Plains.

Low pressure will move across the Northern Plains and into southern Canada today, with heavy snow across the Dakotas and into Minnesota as well as parts of Manitoba and Ontario. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect on the US side of the border, with Snowfall Warnings on the Canadian side. Snowfall won’t be exceptionally heavy, but many locations will pick up 6-12 inches. gusts of 35-45 mph are possible, which may result in near-blizzard conditions at times. Snow should wind down tonight, but another system passing south of the region on Tuesday may bring more snow into the region.

Later in the week, bitterly cold air will drop southward from Canada into parts of the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies, as well as the interior Northwest. Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below normal across the interior Northwest, and as much as 20 to 40 degrees below normal in parts of Montana, the Dakotas, and northern Minnesota. Daytime highs will likely stay below zero for several days near the Canadian border, with low temperatures as low as 20 to 30 degrees below zero in parts of Montana and North Dakota.

While bitterly cold air settles into the North, unseasonably warm weather is expected across the South. High temperatures will reach the 70s and 80s from Texas to the Southeast over the next several days, which is 20 to 30 degrees above normal. Dozens of record highs are likely to be set across the region.

Low pressure will move into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. With a warm, humid airmass in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the system. Conditions could be ripe for some severe weather Wednesday into early Thursday, especially in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Meanwhile, out West, heavy rain and snow will continue across the region. With colder air in place, snow was observed right to the coastline in parts of Washington and Oregon on Sunday. The Seattle metropolitan area received 3-6 inches of snow, with 1-2 inches in the Portland area. As the low pressure area that produced the snow moves inland, more snow is likely, especially in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with rain into the lower elevations of California. Another system will follow right behind, with more heavy rain and mountain snow for the West Coast later this week. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier will result in flooding in some areas, especially Southern California. Across the Sierra Nevada, snowfall totals of 3 to 6 feet are possible.

Right now, First Night festivities in New York City shouldn’t have any weather problems. In fact, it looks rather nice for revelers heading to Times Square to watch the ball drop. Right now, it looks like skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures around 40 degrees at midnight Friday night.

Stormy weather will return to the West Coast over the next few days, and could spread into the Northern Plains later this week.

A low pressure system will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow to much of the West over the next few days, with a second system following for Tuesday into Wednesday. It has been relatively dry across the region recently, so the rainfall is welcome, but amounts could be excessive in spots. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be fairly widespread, but some locations, especially along the California coast, could see upwards of 3-5 inches of rain. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Golden State. The rain will be accompanied by strong winds, which will be widespread not only along the West Coast, but well inland into the Great Basin and parts of the Southwest. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph will be common, with Wind Advisories in effect for many locations. The storm will also produce heavy snowfall across the mountains of the West, especially the Sierra Nevada, where snowfall totals of 2-4 feet or more are expected.

By mid-week, the storm will redevelop east of the Rockies, and head northeastward across the Plains States toward the Upper Midwest. It may produce some light to moderate snow from the Central and Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, but the bigger story will be the strong winds it generates across the Plains States and into the Mississippi Valley. The potential exists for widespread wind gusts of 50-70 mph or stronger. In the Northern Plains, when you combine the winds with the snowfall, blizzard conditions are possible in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Wednesday into Thursday. The system may also generate more severe weather ahead of it from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later Wednesday into Thursday.

The other big story will be the temperatures on either side of this storm system. Unseasonably mild weather is already in place across much of the nation today, but that’s just a taste of what is coming. On Tuesday, temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above normal across most of the Plains States and the Mississippi Valley, with some records possible. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in this region, with dozens of records expected. Temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s, which is 15 to as much as 35-degrees above normal. The warm weather will shift into the eastern third of the nation for the latter half of the week, where temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above normal.

Behind the system, much cooler weather will settle into the West for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping to 8 to 15 degrees below normal. The cooler air will shift into the Northern Plains by Thursday, and across the rest of the Plains for the end of the week, with temperatures running as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

A low pressure system moving into the West Coast today will impact the weather across much of the nation during the upcoming week.

Low pressure will move out of the Pacific and into the West Coast over the next day or two, spreading rain, some of it heavy, into the Pacific Northwest as well as northern and central portions of California. While this storm will be nowhere near the magnitude of some of the storms they’ve already seen this year, rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier in some areas may result in localized flooding. The rian will be accompanied by gusty winds. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings have been issued for parts of the region. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be common, possibly resulting in damage and power outages in some areas. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada, heavy snow is likely, with many areas receiving more than a foot by the time everything winds down later Tuesday.

This system will weaken a bit as it moves into the Rockies by midweek, where several inches of snow is still expected. By Thursday, the system will intensify again as it moves into the Plains states. As it draws in some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it could produce some severe weather across parts of the Central and Southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley ;ater Wednesday and Thursday. To the north, it will likely produce the first snowstorm of the season across the Dakotas and into parts of Minnesota late this week. Snowfall totals of 3-6 inches will be possible in parts of the region.

By the end of the week, the low pressure system will stall out near the Great Lakes, but ahead of it, a frontal system will draw moisture northward, bringing a period of heavy rain from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast from Friday into Saturday.

The other thing we’re paying attention to this week will be the temperature swing we’re expecting. Temperatures will run 6-12 degrees above normal across parts of the Plains states eastward to the Great Lakes over the next couple of days before the core of the milder air shifts to the East Coast later this week. Meanwhile, behind the storm system, a pool of cooler air, with readings of 4-8 degrees below normal, will move into the West during the next 2-3 days. By the time that air moves into the Plains it will intensify  with temperatures running 6-12 degrees below normal across the Plains on Friday and further east by next weekend.

Taking a quick look ahead to the following week, there are some indications that a much cooler weather pattern may move into parts of the central and eastern US for the middle of the month.