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Hurricane Erin Remains a Potent Storm

Hurricane Erin is pulling away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but remains a powerful storm.

Hurricane Erin is passing north of the Dominican Republic this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.

A tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa last weekend developed into Tropical Storm Erin as it crosses the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday. For much of last week Erin quickly crossed the tropical Atlantic, fighting off dry air from Saharan Dust and cooler sea surface temperatures while slowly gathering strength. By midday Friday, Erin finally had strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2025 season, about a week later than average date for the first hurricane of the year. Erin quickly made up for lost time though, taking advantage of favorable conditions to explosively develop into a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday, just the 43rd Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic, dating back to 1851, the 9th one to form before September 1.

We’ve been tracking the system that became Erin since it moved off the coast of Africa. Image provided by CyclonicWx.

The center of Erin passed about 150 miles north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, but the outer bands of the storm brought adverse conditions into the Virgin Islands. Observations from the British Virgin Islands indicate that over 9 inches of rain fell in about 18 hours on Saturday, along with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. In the United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, rainfall totals of up 5 inches resulted in flooding in many areas, with wind gusts to 50 mph resulting in downed trees and power lines.

Radar loop from Puerto Rico showing the passage of Hurricane Erin. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

As of 2pm Sunday, Erin was still a Category 3 hurricane was maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, down from its peak of 160 mph on Saturday. Erin was centered about 200 miles east of Grand Turk Island, moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern Bahamas.

Forecast track for Hurricane Erin. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The forecast for Erin is fairly simple at this point. Erin is expected to turn more toward the northwest and then north over the next day or two as it reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure. This will turn the storm away from the Bahamas and the East Coast, while also passing west of Bermuda. Erin may restrengthen a little, but it will also become a much larger storm. As a result, some of the outer bands of the storm could bring some squally weather to parts of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today and Monday, and possibly to Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina towards mid-week. Erin should turn more toward the northeast during the latter half of the week, heading out into the open Atlantic well southeast of New England and Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Erin will generate large waves and rough surf for much for the East Coast this week. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Erin will generate rough surf and large waves for much of the East Coast for a good chunk of the upcoming week, increasing the threat of riptides for much of the region. With a new moon next weekend, tides will be astronomically high later this week, so coastal flooding could be an issue near high tide across parts of the Northeast US and Atlantic Canada.

Another system in the eastern Atlantic has some potential to develop later this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

As we head towards the peak of Hurricane Season there will be more systems to watch, and we already have another one to keep an eye on. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Cabo Verde Islands today. It will quickly head westward across the Atlantic this week. Conditions are not that favorable for development at this time, but could improve later this week as it gets into the central Atlantic. Some of the forecast models do show this system developing later in the week, so we’ll keep an eye on it this week.

Looking at the Week Ahead (August 9-15, 2025)

August typically brings a range of weather conditions to the United States, from excessive heat to tropical systems and everything in between. As we move into the middle of the month, we are beginning to see this play out.

This weekend will bring dry and warm weather to much of the country. Many areas are expected to experience above-normal temperatures on Saturday. In contrast, others, including the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Intermountain West, and North-Central Rockies, are expected to experience below-normal temperatures. A cold front moving into the center of the country on Saturday will allow temperatures to dip below normal across the Central Plains on Sunday. Temperatures will also shift above normal on Sunday in interior areas of the Pacific Northwest as high pressure builds in across the region.

Temperatures average mainly above normal through the weekend across much of the country, with below normal temperatures in the Intermountain West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Images provided by Weathermodels.

A cold front moving across the central United States will bring a marginal risk of severe weather to the Upper Great Lakes and Central Mississippi Valley, as well as the Central and Southern Plains, through the weekend. The highest risk for severe storms will be on Saturday, with a slight risk of severe weather across southwestern Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and eastern Colorado.

There is a slight risk of severe weather on Saturday for the Upper Midwest and eastern Colorado, with a marginal risk through the weekend from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Images provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The cold front will also bring heavy rainfall to the Upper Midwest. There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall across southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and northeast Missouri on both Saturday and Sunday, with a slight risk extending from southern Wisconsin to eastern Kansas. A stationary front will continue to produce rain and thunderstorms across much of the Southeastern United States, with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on both days. Meanwhile, in the Southwest, monsoonal moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for both Saturday and Sunday.

The Upper Midwest will face the highest risk of excessive rainfall through the weekend, with areas such as the Southeast and Southwest also facing a marginal risk. Images provided by the Weather Prediction Center.

As we move into the beginning of next week, temperatures are expected to rise across the Northeast, with above-normal values anticipated for much of the week. The slow-moving front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Midwest through the middle of the week before moving into the Northeast toward the second half of the week. The Northeast will see its next potential for rain as this front moves through, ending its dry stretch, which has caused some areas to become abnormally dry across the region.

Areas of the Northeast are becoming abnormally dry as the region continues to see dry conditions. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The stationary front across the south will continue to bring the potential for rain and thunderstorms to much of the region through the end of the week. Areas in the Southwest will also see the possibility of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon as monsoonal moisture remains over the region. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the majority of the country.

We will also be monitoring tropical development as the week progresses, since the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor areas in the Atlantic Ocean for possible development over the next seven days. Some models have been in favor of tropical development by the end of the week, but also show vastly different solutions for these systems. At this time, it is still too early to determine whether these storms will develop, never mind their storm tracks.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas for tropical development in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Signs of Life in the Tropics

Tropical activity usually begins to increase in August, and right on cue, it is doing so, in both the Atlantic and the Pacific.

It’s been a slow start to hurricane season across the Northern Hemisphere. Image provided by Colorado State University.

After a fairly slow start to hurricane season, conditions are starting to become more favorable for storms to develop, especially across the Atlantic. We’ve had three weak, short-lived storms thus far, which isn’t that unusual for June and July, but activity usually starts to ramp up in August. Saharan dust surges, which are common in June and July, should be starting to slow down over the next few weeks. Water temperatures continue to rise, and now are above the 26C (79F) threshold needed to sustain tropical systems across a large portion of the Atlantic, especially the Main Development Region (MDR). In addition, wind shear has been rather hostile across the tropics, but that is also starting to lessen. The tropical waves moving off the west coast of Africa have been a little more robust over the past few weeks, and although none of them have developed, it is only a matter of time until that changes. This is not the only place we need to watch for storms to develop however.

There are now three areas in the Atlantic being monitored for development. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Starting off near the East Coast, a frontal system is stalled out near the Carolinas. A wave of low pressure has developed along the front, a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coastline. It is producing squally conditions in the offshore waters, and should head out to sea over the next few days. However, as it detaches from the front over the next day or so conditions will become favorable for development, and it could become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next few days as it heads out to sea, without impacting any land areas.

Low pressure is trying to develop off the East Coast. Loop provided by NOAA.

That might not be the only system we need to keep an eye on near the East Coast over the next week or so. Forecast models are showing the potential for another system to develop off the Southeast Coast later this week. Some models keep the storm weak and have it mill around near the Southeast for a few days, others are more bullish and develop the system and have it head up the East Coast, while other models have it stay offshore and head out to sea harmlessly. It’s too early to determine whether the storm will even form, never mind where it might go, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on as the week goes on.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are a couple of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean, but neither is expected to develop at this time. However, another wave will move off the west coast of Africa on Monday, and this one could bear watching. We already mentioned above how conditions across the Main Development Region are beginning to improve, and this wave could take advantage of those improving conditions. Many of the forecast models, especially the Ensembles, are showing significant potential for this wave to develop as it crosses the Atlantic. We’ve seen plenty of times before where the models are gung-ho with a system, and it doesn’t develop, so this is far from a lock. Even if it does develop, questions of where it goes and how strong it gets cannot be answered at this time, and probably won’t be for at least another week or so, and that’s if it even develops. Nevertheless, we’ll be keeping an eye on this wave in the coming days.

The Eastern Pacific could see more storms this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

In the Eastern Pacific, where activity has been closer to normal so far this season, more storms are expected this week. Former Hurricane Gil has become extratropical halfway between Mexico and Hawaii, and will no longer be a threat. However, an area of low pressure appears to be developing several hundred miles southwest of Mexico. Conditions are favorable for development, and this system could become a tropical depression by Monday. Forecast models show the potential for it to quickly develop, possibly becoming a hurricane by midweek. After that, it will start to move over cooler water, and should start to weaken fairly rapidly. Its remnants could bring gusty winds and rainfall to parts of Hawaii in a week or so, but that is far from certain.

An area of low pressure southwest of Mexico could become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Meanwhile, forecast models show the potential for another system to develop south of Mexico later this week. While the models aren’t quite as bullish on this system as they are on the one mentioned above, they do show the potential for this system to become at least a tropical storm toward the end of the week. The difference with this one is that it will form quite a bit closer to Mexico, and could be a threat to parts of southern Mexico by the end of the week.

The Western Pacific is also getting more active. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

In the Western Pacific there are also a couple of areas to watch. Tropical Storm Krosa is dissipating well northeast of Japan, and is not a threat to any land areas as it heads out into open water. Tropical Storm Bailu has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and was centered about 400 miles east-northeast of Tokyo Sunday evening. Bailu should maintain its current intensity for the next day or two, but will head east-northeastward, away from Japan and out to sea, without impacting any land areas. There is also an area of disturbed weather about 500 miles north of Wake Island that is being watched. Conditions are favorable for development, and this could become another tropical depression in the next day or so. Like the other active systems in the Western Pacific, even if this one develops, it will likely stay over open water without threatening any land areas.

The Tropics Remain Fairly Quiet

By most metrics, the first 6-8 weeks of hurricane season has been fairly quiet across the Northern Hemisphere.

Tropical Cyclone Activity has been near to below normal across the Northern Hemisphere. Image provided by Colorado State University.

Going strictly by the number of named storms, activity has been near normal across the Atlantic and Pacific, and below normal in the Indian Ocean, where no storms have developed so far this season. However, the number of storms does not tell the entire story. To get a better view of how active a season has been we use a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE for short. ACE is calculated for all storms that are at least tropical storm strength by summing the square of a storm’s maximum sustained wind speed every 6 hours, then dividing that number by 10,000. Using this metric, activity is running about 44% of normal across the Northern Hemisphere, and less than 40% of normal across the Atlantic.

In the Atlantic, there have only been 3 short-lived tropical storms thus far this season, and 2 of them were very weak, which is why the ACE for the Atlantic is so low. In the Eastern Pacific there have been 3 hurricanes, 2 of them major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger), resulting in a higher ACE, but it is still below normal for this point in the season. The same holds true for the Western Pacific, where there have only been 3 typhoons so far this year.

Bursts of Saharan Dust will continue to cross the Atlantic over the next week. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

In the Atlantic, conditions have remained unfavorable for the most part, as sea surface temperatures are still a little too cool across the Main Development Region, but bursts of Saharan Dust continue to move off of Africa and across the Atlantic every few days. These bursts suppress shower and thunderstorm activity with very dry air as they make their way westward. As we get into August, the Saharan Dust outbreaks should become less numerous, and sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic should continue to rise, allowing for more favorable conditions to develop.

There is a very low probability that a system well east of the Caribbean could develop in the next few days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

There are 2 areas that we are currently monitoring across the Atlantic at the moment, though both have slim odds of developing at this point. A tropical wave centered about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There is a small window for some development over the next day or two, but after that, conditions will become more hostile once again, well before the wave reaches the eastern Caribbean.

Another disturbance may bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida again this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Last week, a disturbance developed off the Southeast coast and moved westward into the Northern Gulf, producing heavy rain and flash flooding across parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast. The system did not develop before moving inland, and what’s left of it is producing showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South and the Southeast. Forecast models are showing the potential for this system to move back out off the Southeast coast again in the next few days, then head westward around the periphery of a ridge of high pressure and back into the Gulf during the upcoming week, with some potential for development once again. At the very least, it will likely bring some more heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast, but the odds of development remain low.

Typhoon Wipha made landfall just west of Hong Kong early this morning. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Wipha passed just south of Hong Kong early this morning, producing wind gusts of up to 82 mph, and dropping as much as 5-10 inches of rain on the region. After making landfall just west of Hong Kong, Wipha should slowly weaken while paralleling the coast of southern Guangdong Province today. It may emerge in the Beibu Gulf (a.k.a. Gulf of Tonkin) on Monday. If it does, it could restrengthen a little before a second landfall in northern Vietnam. Whether it does or not, heavy rain and flooding are likely across parts of Southern China and northern Vietnam over the next few days.

Saharan Dust Suppressing Tropical Activity in the Atlantic

Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start, which is fairly normal despite the early start in many recent years, and one of the main reason has been Saharan Dust.

Saharan Dust and dry air covers much of the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

In the mid-latitudes, most systems move from west to east, but in the tropics, it’s the opposite, with systems moving from east to west. We see this all the time with tropical waves and once they develop, most tropical systems head towards the west across the Atlantic. Early in the season though, these easterly winds will send large plumes of sand and dust off the Saharan Desert and into the Atlantic, where the prevailing winds carry them across the ocean.

Satellite loop showing a plume of Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean. Loop provided by NOAA.

As these plumes move across the Atlantic they suppress shower activity, preventing any storms from getting organized. They also limit the amount of sunlight getting through, which keeps the ocean temperatures a little cooler, especially in the Main Development Region of the central and eastern Atlantic. Ocean temperatures in this region are generally too cool for any systems to develop until we get into the latter half of July in a typical season. Tropical systems need to be over water that is 26 Celsius (79 Fahrenheit) or warmer to maintain their intensity or strengthen.

Current sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

As the Saharan Dust reaches the Caribbean, it can have detrimental effects on the islands. In additional to produce poor air quality, the lack of cloud cover and shower activity results in very warm to hot temperatures across the islands. Instead of high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90, temperatures can soar into the lower to middle 90s, with heat indices well in excess of 100. Some of these plumes can make their way into the Gulf and across parts of Florida, the Southeast, and Texas, resulting in hazy conditions.

Model forecast for the progression of Saharan dust across the tropics. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

While water temperatures are not yet warm enough to support tropical systems across the Main Development Region, they are plenty warm enough across the Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Southeast Coast near the Gulf Stream. At this time of year, we typically see clusters of showers and thunderstorms from southern Mexico across Central America and into the western Caribbean. These storms are part of the larger Central American Gyre, a very broad rotating area of showers and thunderstorms that can result in very heavy rain and flooding in parts of Central America. Sometimes you’ll see activity break off from this gyre and develop into a tropical depression or tropical system on either the Caribbean side or the eastern Pacific side of Central America. While nothing is imminent, this is an area to watch for development early in the season.

Most early season storms will likely develop in either the Gulf, Western Caribbean, or near the Bahamas. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Another area that needs to be watched is near the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast. As cold fronts stall out and dissipate in this region, they can leave behind clusters of showers and thunderstorms. If they stay over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream long enough, they could eventually develop into a system. This is something that we are watching at the moment. Showers and thunderstorms have been producing heavy rain across Florida for the past few days, and will slowly drift northeastward this week. Some of the forecast models show the potential for a weak area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast, but whether or not it is tropical is yet to be determined. The system is likely to remain very weak, though it may produce some heavy rain and gusty winds for portions of the Carolinas, but it will get absorbed by another cold front this weekend, which will usher it out to sea and away from the East Coast.

Forecasts models show the potential for a weak system to develop near the Carolinas later this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Outlook for the Upcoming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1st and runs through Sunday November 30th, and indications are that the season maybe off to an early and active start.

List of names for storms that form during the 2025 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas.

Radar loop showing Hurricane Helene approaching and making landfall in Florida. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength.

2024 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts for the upcoming season are for an active season with between 14-19 named storms, several of which are expected to be hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures aren’t quite as high as this time last year, with cooler than normal temperatures being seen across the far eastern Atlantic, which should restrict any development off the coast of Africa until much later in the season. However, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal across the Caribbean as well as in the Gulf, and this could lead to an early start to the season with systems developing close to the Caribbean, central America, Florida and the Gulf Coast. As we get deeper into the season, developing activity should start in portions of the central and eastern Atlantic. This will be helped by less in the way of solar activity this summer than last summer, which helped diminish the development of tropical waves in the far eastern and central Atlantic. There is no expected enhancement or decrease in tropical activity this summer due to ENSO which is forecast to be in a neutral phase. El Nino conditions usually decrease tropical activity in the Atlantic and La Nina usually helps enhance tropical activity.

Sea surface temperature anomalies as of mid-Mid. Images provided by NOAA.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA released their forecast on May 22, and it calls for a 60% chance for above normal activity this season, with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.

Forecasters at NOAA are expecting above normal activity again this season. Image provided by NOAA.

Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.

Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.

Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gust Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information

As always, you should get your weather information from trusted and reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center during the tropical season.

Hurricane Season Getting an Early Start

Early season forecasts called for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic due to a multitude of factors, and so far, we’re off to a fast start.

Satellite loop centered on Tropical Storm Beryl. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits. (Click for loop)

Earlier in June, Tropical Storm Alberto brought heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Mexico and southern Texas. Given that this area has been in a drought, the rainfall was actually quite welcome, though probably not all at once. The moisture from Alberto also helped to get the Southwest Monsoon season off to an early start. Now as we approach the final days of June, we have a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic, and it’s in a spot that we normally wouldn’t expect a storm to form this early in the season (more on that in a minute).

Tropical Storm Alberto brought very heavy rain to parts of northeastern Mexico earlier in June. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tropical Depression Two developed Friday evening east of the Windward Islands and quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl overnight. As of 2pm, Tropical Storm Beryl was centered about 785 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving toward the west at 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Beryl will likely become a hurricane this evening or tonight, and continue strengthening as it approaches the Windward Islands late Sunday into early Monday. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for several of the islands in the southeastern Caribbean. Once it passes the islands, it should continue west-northwestward across the Caribbean, but obviously other factors can impact the exact track that it takes, as well as the intensity the storm reaches. Given that these forecasts have considerable uncertainty beyond 3-4 days, it is too early to speculate on what other locations it could impact toward the middle of next week and how strong it would be.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Beryl. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

We’ve been keeping a close eye on this system for a few days now as the tropical wave responsible for the system has been crossing the Atlantic. The wave stayed rather far south, which is what helped it develop. To the north, there has been some Saharan Dust making its way across the Atlantic, and wind shear has been higher. Both of those factors inhibit the development of tropical systems, but by staying farther south and avoiding those, it has taken advantage of favorable conditions to gradually get organized this week.

Forecast tracks for Beryl from the members of several model ensembles. Loop provided by Tomer Burg. (Click for loop)

Beryl is only the 7th named storm to form east of the Caribbean during the month of June since 1851. The previous 6 storms were:

Unnamed Storm #2 in 1933
Tropical Storm Ana in 1979
Tropical Storm Bret in 2017
Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2022
Tropical Storm Bret in 2023
Tropical Storm Cindy in 2023

Of those six storms, only the 1933 storm reached hurricane strength during the month of June.

There are a couple of areas of interest across the tropics at this time Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Depression Two isn’t the only storm we’re keeping an eye at this time. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure are crossing the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche tonight, there is a small window for the system to develop. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Sunday before moving inland once again. Whether it develops or not, it will bring another round of heavy rain into northeastern Mexico.

Parts of eastern Mexico could pick up another 10-20 inches of rain over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

There’s also another tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s disorganized right now, but as it moves westward, conditions will be favorable for development, and it could take a track similar to Beryl, possibly impacting the Lesser Antilles by early next week.

Hurricane Season Begins on Saturday

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Saturday June 1 and runs through November 30, and all indications are that it is going to be a very active one.

List of names for storms that form during the 2023 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

The 2023 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but the bulk of the activity occurred during a 7-week span between August 20 and October 6. The 20 named storms was tied with 1933 for the fourth most in a single season. Hurricane Idalia made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a strong Category 3 hurricane on August 30 after peaking as a Category 4 storm earlier that day. Hurricane Lee was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. It passed west of Bermuda and for a time looked like a potential threat to New England, eventually making landfall as a strong extratropical storm in southwestern Nova Scotia on September 16. The only other storms to make landfall in the US were Tropical Storm Harold in southern Texas on August 22 and Tropical Storm Ophelia in North Carolina on September 23. With only 3 US landfalls, and just 1 at hurricane strength, this was a welcome change from 2021 when a total of 21 storms formed, 3rd most ever in a single season, and a total of eight of them made landfall in the United States.

2023 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts for the upcoming season are nearly unanimous that a very active season is expected. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are well above normal, near record highs in places, which would tend to lead toward a more active year. We also are transition from an El Nino to a La Nina in the Pacific, and that tends to increase Atlantic tropical activity. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 23, and it calls for a 85 percent chance for an above normal season, a 10 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 5 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above to well above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for a well above average season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

Forecasts call for a very active Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gulf Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information

As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.

Hilary Nears the Mexican Coast, The Atlantic is Waking Up

The Pacific continues to grab the headlines, but the Atlantic is getting active as we get closer to the peak of the season.

Hurricane Hilary has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it continues northward very close to the coast of the Baja California peninsula. As of 11am EDT, Hilary was centered about 220 miles south-southeast of San Diego, moving toward the north-northwest at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for northern portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the southern California coast from the Mexican border northward to Point Mugu, including Catalina Island.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hilary. Loop provided by NOAA.

Hilary is expected to continue weakening today as it passes very close to the Baja coastline and into southern California. Hilary will produce gusty winds and storm surge along the coast, with a few tornadoes possible across parts of the Southwest, but heavy rain and the resultant flooding are the most significant threat with this storm. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are likely across many locations in southern California and Nevada, with some totals in excess of 10 inches possible. In some of the desert locations, including Death Valley, this is more rain than they normally receive in an entire year. Widespread flooding is likely, including the San Diego, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas. As Hilary continues to push northward and weakens, heavy rain will spread across the Great Basin, and Inland Northwest, with rainfall totals of 1-3 inches possible, likely producing some flooding in these areas as well.

Very heavy rainfall is expected across California and Nevada over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In the Atlantic, Saharan Dust has suppressed activity for the past few weeks, but now that it has moved out, there are several areas of interest, including a pair of storms.

The Atlantic has become quite active over the past few days. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Emily has developed about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Emily is expected to continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, but conditions will become increasingly hostile, with wind shear increasing over the next few days. This will result in steady weakening of Emily, with it likely become extratropical on Monday or Tuesday. After that it will turn toward the northwest and north, heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic, without impacting any land areas.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Emily. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Tropical Depression Six is barely hanging on as an organized system about 625 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Top winds are near 35 mph, and it is moving toward the west at 12 mph. Wind shear is ripping this system apart, and it is expected to dissipate over open water later today or tonight.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression Six. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Another area of low pressure is moving across the southeastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. It should continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, and conditions are favorable for it to continue to develop. Reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system during the afternoon to check on the structure and strength of the system. It will continue to produce heavy rain and gusty winds across the northern and eastern Caribbean for the next few days, but it should turn more toward the north early this week, which will increase the threat to some of the islands, depending on when the turn occurs. Right now, it looks like Hispaniola will have the biggest threat, but this is predicated on when (or if) that turn occurs. It should eventually move north of the islands, possibly near the Turks and Caicos Islands, before heading out into the Atlantic. Once into the open waters of the Atlantic, it could become a potent storm system, but again, this is dependent on what it does in the next few days first.

Ensemble forecast tracks for the system in the eastern Caribbean. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

An area of low pressure that brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and southern Florida has moved into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It is expected to continue westward across the Gulf over the next few days, with some development possible. It could become a tropical depression toward midweek before approaching the Texas coastline. Whether it develops or not, it should bring some much-needed heavy rain to parts of central and southern Texas later this week, helping to not only put a dent in the ongoing drought in the region, but also provide some relief from the heat.

A system will bring much needed rainfall to parts of Texas this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Yet another tropical wave has moved off the African coast and into the eastern Atlantic. Conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week. If it does develop, it is expected to remain over open water, with no impact to land areas through at least next weekend.

The Week Ahead: November 7-13, 2022

A very active week is expected across the nation this week, with everything from hurricanes to blizzards, and record highs to record lows expected.

The week is starting out active and will remain that way for the next several days. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning, with rain strong winds, and mountain snow expected. As this storm spreads inland, heavy rain will spread across most of the West, including all of California, with heavy snow across the higher elevations and through the Great Basin and into the Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and High Wind Warnings are in effect for many locations already. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier will be welcomed across California, helping to put a dent into the drought and aiding efforts to extinguish the many wildfires still burning across the West. Across the mountains, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet and locally heavier are expected in parts of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with up to a foot possible across the mountains of the Interior Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Heavy rain is expected across most of California over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, the system will move into the Plains and toward the Great Lakes. Ahead of the storm, record high temperatures are possible once again, with the threat of some severe weather in the Mississippi Valley. However, it’s across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where impact will be the greatest. The combination of strong winds, gusting to 40-50 mph, and heavy snow, possibly as much as 8-16 inches across parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota as well as the southern Canadian Prairies, will result in blizzard conditions at times later Thursday into Friday.

The models all have heavy snow forecast for the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, but differ on the amounts and placement. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Behind the storm, especially with fresh snowcover, some of the coldest air so far this fall will pour into the Rockies and Northern Plains with high temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend only in the teens and 20s, and some subzero low temperatures likely. As that storm continues into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front across the eastern third of the nation for the end of the week. By the time it reaches the East Coast late Saturday, nearly the entire nation will experience temperatures that are below normal for mid-November, a rather big change from what the eastern half of the nation has experiences for the past couple of weeks.

By Sunday, temperatures will be below normal across virtually the entire Lower 48. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While all this is going on, we also need to pay attention to the tropics. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, and we’re keeping an eye on two separate areas at this time. The first is centered a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. As it drifts around over marginally warm waters, it could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or two. It likely won’t last that long, as a strong cold front moving off the East Coast today will absorb this system by midweek and send it out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

The models are unanimous that the system east of Bermuda will not be a threat to land this week. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The second area is a much bigger concern. A low pressure area few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has been producing heavy rain across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for the past few days, with rainfall totals of 5-10 inches producing flooding in some locations. The system is expected to move northwestward while slowly organizing, and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Eventually, it will turn toward the west, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas, then heading toward the East Coast of Florida. Heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf are likely across much of Florida as the system draws closer at mid-week. Some models have the storm close to hurricane strength before landfall somewhere across east-central Florida. After landfall, the mostly likely scenario is a turn toward the north and eventually northeast as a strong trough of low pressure moves into the Eastern US.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Once the system makes the turn, it will likely move back into the Atlantic and up the East Coast. While it will lose its characteristics, it will still produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from the Carolinas northward to New England. Given its tropical origins, some of the rain could be especially heavy near the coast, with widespread totals of 2-4 inches possible. The strong cold front marching eastward will help kick the system out to sea later Saturday. If it does so early enough, it could result in less rain and wind across parts of New England.