Early season forecasts called for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic due to a multitude of factors, and so far, we’re off to a fast start.
Satellite loop centered on Tropical Storm Beryl. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits. (Click for loop)
Earlier in June, Tropical Storm Alberto brought heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Mexico and southern Texas. Given that this area has been in a drought, the rainfall was actually quite welcome, though probably not all at once. The moisture from Alberto also helped to get the Southwest Monsoon season off to an early start. Now as we approach the final days of June, we have a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic, and it’s in a spot that we normally wouldn’t expect a storm to form this early in the season (more on that in a minute).
Tropical Storm Alberto brought very heavy rain to parts of northeastern Mexico earlier in June. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Tropical Depression Two developed Friday evening east of the Windward Islands and quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl overnight. As of 2pm, Tropical Storm Beryl was centered about 785 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving toward the west at 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Beryl will likely become a hurricane this evening or tonight, and continue strengthening as it approaches the Windward Islands late Sunday into early Monday. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for several of the islands in the southeastern Caribbean. Once it passes the islands, it should continue west-northwestward across the Caribbean, but obviously other factors can impact the exact track that it takes, as well as the intensity the storm reaches. Given that these forecasts have considerable uncertainty beyond 3-4 days, it is too early to speculate on what other locations it could impact toward the middle of next week and how strong it would be.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Beryl. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
We’ve been keeping a close eye on this system for a few days now as the tropical wave responsible for the system has been crossing the Atlantic. The wave stayed rather far south, which is what helped it develop. To the north, there has been some Saharan Dust making its way across the Atlantic, and wind shear has been higher. Both of those factors inhibit the development of tropical systems, but by staying farther south and avoiding those, it has taken advantage of favorable conditions to gradually get organized this week.
Forecast tracks for Beryl from the members of several model ensembles. Loop provided by Tomer Burg. (Click for loop)
Beryl is only the 7th named storm to form east of the Caribbean during the month of June since 1851. The previous 6 storms were:
Unnamed Storm #2 in 1933
Tropical Storm Ana in 1979
Tropical Storm Bret in 2017
Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2022
Tropical Storm Bret in 2023
Tropical Storm Cindy in 2023
Of those six storms, only the 1933 storm reached hurricane strength during the month of June.
There are a couple of areas of interest across the tropics at this time Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Depression Two isn’t the only storm we’re keeping an eye at this time. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure are crossing the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche tonight, there is a small window for the system to develop. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Sunday before moving inland once again. Whether it develops or not, it will bring another round of heavy rain into northeastern Mexico.
Parts of eastern Mexico could pick up another 10-20 inches of rain over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
There’s also another tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s disorganized right now, but as it moves westward, conditions will be favorable for development, and it could take a track similar to Beryl, possibly impacting the Lesser Antilles by early next week.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Saturday June 1 and runs through November 30, and all indications are that it is going to be a very active one.
List of names for storms that form during the 2023 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
The 2023 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but the bulk of the activity occurred during a 7-week span between August 20 and October 6. The 20 named storms was tied with 1933 for the fourth most in a single season. Hurricane Idalia made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a strong Category 3 hurricane on August 30 after peaking as a Category 4 storm earlier that day. Hurricane Lee was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. It passed west of Bermuda and for a time looked like a potential threat to New England, eventually making landfall as a strong extratropical storm in southwestern Nova Scotia on September 16. The only other storms to make landfall in the US were Tropical Storm Harold in southern Texas on August 22 and Tropical Storm Ophelia in North Carolina on September 23. With only 3 US landfalls, and just 1 at hurricane strength, this was a welcome change from 2021 when a total of 21 storms formed, 3rd most ever in a single season, and a total of eight of them made landfall in the United States.
2023 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts for the upcoming season are nearly unanimous that a very active season is expected. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are well above normal, near record highs in places, which would tend to lead toward a more active year. We also are transition from an El Nino to a La Nina in the Pacific, and that tends to increase Atlantic tropical activity. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 23, and it calls for a 85 percent chance for an above normal season, a 10 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 5 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above to well above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for a well above average season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
Forecasts call for a very active Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.
Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gulf Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.
The Pacific continues to grab the headlines, but the Atlantic is getting active as we get closer to the peak of the season.
Hurricane Hilary has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it continues northward very close to the coast of the Baja California peninsula. As of 11am EDT, Hilary was centered about 220 miles south-southeast of San Diego, moving toward the north-northwest at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for northern portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the southern California coast from the Mexican border northward to Point Mugu, including Catalina Island.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hilary. Loop provided by NOAA.
Hilary is expected to continue weakening today as it passes very close to the Baja coastline and into southern California. Hilary will produce gusty winds and storm surge along the coast, with a few tornadoes possible across parts of the Southwest, but heavy rain and the resultant flooding are the most significant threat with this storm. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are likely across many locations in southern California and Nevada, with some totals in excess of 10 inches possible. In some of the desert locations, including Death Valley, this is more rain than they normally receive in an entire year. Widespread flooding is likely, including the San Diego, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas. As Hilary continues to push northward and weakens, heavy rain will spread across the Great Basin, and Inland Northwest, with rainfall totals of 1-3 inches possible, likely producing some flooding in these areas as well.
Very heavy rainfall is expected across California and Nevada over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
In the Atlantic, Saharan Dust has suppressed activity for the past few weeks, but now that it has moved out, there are several areas of interest, including a pair of storms.
The Atlantic has become quite active over the past few days. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Emily has developed about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Emily is expected to continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, but conditions will become increasingly hostile, with wind shear increasing over the next few days. This will result in steady weakening of Emily, with it likely become extratropical on Monday or Tuesday. After that it will turn toward the northwest and north, heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic, without impacting any land areas.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Emily. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Tropical Depression Six is barely hanging on as an organized system about 625 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Top winds are near 35 mph, and it is moving toward the west at 12 mph. Wind shear is ripping this system apart, and it is expected to dissipate over open water later today or tonight.
Forecast track for Tropical Depression Six. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Another area of low pressure is moving across the southeastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. It should continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, and conditions are favorable for it to continue to develop. Reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system during the afternoon to check on the structure and strength of the system. It will continue to produce heavy rain and gusty winds across the northern and eastern Caribbean for the next few days, but it should turn more toward the north early this week, which will increase the threat to some of the islands, depending on when the turn occurs. Right now, it looks like Hispaniola will have the biggest threat, but this is predicated on when (or if) that turn occurs. It should eventually move north of the islands, possibly near the Turks and Caicos Islands, before heading out into the Atlantic. Once into the open waters of the Atlantic, it could become a potent storm system, but again, this is dependent on what it does in the next few days first.
Ensemble forecast tracks for the system in the eastern Caribbean. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
An area of low pressure that brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and southern Florida has moved into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It is expected to continue westward across the Gulf over the next few days, with some development possible. It could become a tropical depression toward midweek before approaching the Texas coastline. Whether it develops or not, it should bring some much-needed heavy rain to parts of central and southern Texas later this week, helping to not only put a dent in the ongoing drought in the region, but also provide some relief from the heat.
A system will bring much needed rainfall to parts of Texas this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Yet another tropical wave has moved off the African coast and into the eastern Atlantic. Conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week. If it does develop, it is expected to remain over open water, with no impact to land areas through at least next weekend.
A very active week is expected across the nation this week, with everything from hurricanes to blizzards, and record highs to record lows expected.
The week is starting out active and will remain that way for the next several days. Image provided by NOAA.
Low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning, with rain strong winds, and mountain snow expected. As this storm spreads inland, heavy rain will spread across most of the West, including all of California, with heavy snow across the higher elevations and through the Great Basin and into the Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and High Wind Warnings are in effect for many locations already. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier will be welcomed across California, helping to put a dent into the drought and aiding efforts to extinguish the many wildfires still burning across the West. Across the mountains, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet and locally heavier are expected in parts of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with up to a foot possible across the mountains of the Interior Northwest and Northern Rockies.
Heavy rain is expected across most of California over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.
By Thursday, the system will move into the Plains and toward the Great Lakes. Ahead of the storm, record high temperatures are possible once again, with the threat of some severe weather in the Mississippi Valley. However, it’s across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where impact will be the greatest. The combination of strong winds, gusting to 40-50 mph, and heavy snow, possibly as much as 8-16 inches across parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota as well as the southern Canadian Prairies, will result in blizzard conditions at times later Thursday into Friday.
The models all have heavy snow forecast for the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, but differ on the amounts and placement. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Behind the storm, especially with fresh snowcover, some of the coldest air so far this fall will pour into the Rockies and Northern Plains with high temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend only in the teens and 20s, and some subzero low temperatures likely. As that storm continues into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front across the eastern third of the nation for the end of the week. By the time it reaches the East Coast late Saturday, nearly the entire nation will experience temperatures that are below normal for mid-November, a rather big change from what the eastern half of the nation has experiences for the past couple of weeks.
By Sunday, temperatures will be below normal across virtually the entire Lower 48. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While all this is going on, we also need to pay attention to the tropics. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, and we’re keeping an eye on two separate areas at this time. The first is centered a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. As it drifts around over marginally warm waters, it could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or two. It likely won’t last that long, as a strong cold front moving off the East Coast today will absorb this system by midweek and send it out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
The models are unanimous that the system east of Bermuda will not be a threat to land this week. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
The second area is a much bigger concern. A low pressure area few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has been producing heavy rain across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for the past few days, with rainfall totals of 5-10 inches producing flooding in some locations. The system is expected to move northwestward while slowly organizing, and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Eventually, it will turn toward the west, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas, then heading toward the East Coast of Florida. Heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf are likely across much of Florida as the system draws closer at mid-week. Some models have the storm close to hurricane strength before landfall somewhere across east-central Florida. After landfall, the mostly likely scenario is a turn toward the north and eventually northeast as a strong trough of low pressure moves into the Eastern US.
Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
Once the system makes the turn, it will likely move back into the Atlantic and up the East Coast. While it will lose its characteristics, it will still produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from the Carolinas northward to New England. Given its tropical origins, some of the rain could be especially heavy near the coast, with widespread totals of 2-4 inches possible. The strong cold front marching eastward will help kick the system out to sea later Saturday. If it does so early enough, it could result in less rain and wind across parts of New England.
After a quiet start to the hurricane season, things have gotten active across the Atlantic and also in the Pacific.
The tropics are very active right now. Image provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
We’ll start off with Hurricane Fiona, as it is the strongest one of the four and also the biggest threat. As of 5pm EDT, Fiona was centered about 370 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving toward the north-northeast at 40 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph, making Fiona a high-end Category 3 storm. Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. An upper-level trough across the eastern US will pull Fiona a bit more toward the north later today and tonight. Fiona is expected to steadily weaken and become extratropical as it moves over cooler waters, but this is both good and bad. It’s good because it will be a weaker storm, but it’s bad because the extratropical transition means that the wind field will spread out, bringing stronger winds to a much larger area. Fiona is expected to make landfall in eastern Nova Scotia early Saturday as an extratropical system with the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane. While Atlantic Canada is no stranger to powerful extratropical storms from the Fall into the Spring, this one will be much stronger than most of those storms. Widespread wind damage is likely as well as storm surge flooding near the coastline. Freshwater flooding won’t be as much of a concern as the system will be moving too quickly to drop excessive rain in many locations. Across parts of Labrador and eastern Quebec, cold air on the backside of the storm will allow the rain to change to snow, with several inches of accumulation possible in spots.
Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
Fiona has already left a trail of destruction in its wake, and will almost certainly have its name retired after the season ends. It crossed the Lesser Antilles a week ago, producing some wind damage and flooding across Guadeloupe and nearby islands. Heavy rain and strong winds buffeted the Virgin Islands next, especially across St. Croix, but Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic were the beneficiaries of Fiona’s full fury. Torrential rainfall led to widespread severe flooding, and wind gusts in excess of 115 mph resulted in widespread damage across the region. At one point, the entire island of Puerto Rico was without power. Many locations in this region are still trying to recover from Hurricane Maria back in 2017. After leaving the Great Antilles, Fiona brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the nearby southeastern Bahamas. Finally, Fiona passed just west of Bermuda late last night and early this morning. Although the core of the storm missed the island, there were still reports of wind gusts to 100 mph. Large swells from Fiona have been impacting the Eastern US for the past few days and will gradually subside through the weekend.
Radar loop of Fiona approaching and crossing Puerto Rico. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School
Next up is Tropical Storm Gaston. As of 5pm EDT, Gaston was centered about 70 miles north of Faial Island in the Central Azores, moving toward the south at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect of the islands of the Western and Central Azores. Gaston is expected to turn more toward the southwest, then west over the next day or two. This will bring the center of Gaston closer to or across parts of the Azores. Gusty winds and heavy rain that could produce flooding and mudslides are expected. Steady weakening is expected, and Gaston will likely become extratropical by Sunday.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Gaston. Loop provided by NOAA.
Tropical Storm Hermine just formed late this afternoon in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. As of 5pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 290 miles northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the north-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Hermine’s forecast calls for a little strengthening tonight, then it’ll weaken as it moves back over cooler water, and it will likely dissipate before the weekend is over. However, it will bring some heavy rain to parts of the Canary Islands over the weekend, with rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and locally heavier possibly resulting in flooding in some spots.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hermine. Loop provided by NOAA.
The last storm in the Atlantic. As of 5pm EDT, TD9 was centered about 430 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The short-term forecast for the depression is fairly simple. It should head more toward the west tonight and Saturday while steadily strengthening. Once it reaches Tropical Storm strength it will be named Ian. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. The storm should pass south of Jamaica late Saturday or early Sunday, then turn more toward the northwest and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday as a strong tropical storm, or possibly a hurricane. It should approach western Cuba on Monday, likely as a hurricane. Heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge are expected across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, and to a lesser extent across Jamaica. After that, things get more complex.
Forecast track for Tropical Depression 9 through the next 3 days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
A trough of low pressure will move into the eastern US, which should steer the system northward, and eventually northeastward. When that turn occurs is vital to the forecast. Once the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it should strengthen, and could become a major hurricane, so obviously, where it heads towards becomes an important question. As you can see from the image below, the various model ensemble members do not agree on where that turn happens. Some have it miss the trough and head more toward the northwest, while the majority have it move toward western Florida or the Florida Panhandle. Beyond that, some bring it inland into the Southeast, others have it cross Florida and then become a threat to the East Coast. Some even bring it into New England or Nova Scotia (which would be really bad), and many just head out to sea once back in the Atlantic. Obviously, this is something that we won’t have a better handle on for at least a few more days, but anyone from the Central Gulf to the East Coast should keep an eye on this storm’s progress.
Ensemble forecasts for the track if Tropical Depression 9. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
There are a few other active systems in the Pacific as well. Tropical Storm Newton is expected to pull away from Socorro Island off of the Mexican coastline tonight and head out into the open waters of the eastern Pacific where it should weaken and dissipate over the next several days. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Talas is expected to dissipate just off the south coast of Japan on Saturday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Noru will become an increasing threat to the Philippines over the next few days. As of Friday evening, Noru was centered about 580 miles east-northwest of Manila, moving toward the west-southwest a 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. The forecast calls for steady strengthening, and Noru is expected to cross Luzon early Sunday as a typhoon. It should re-emerge in the South China Sea later in the day, then head westward, gathering strength early next week. It could make landfall in Vietnam by mid-week as a typhoon.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Noru. Image provided by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.
Hurricane Fiona is grabbing the headlines, but it’s not the only area we’re watching this week.
The surface map doesn’t look that busy, but there is plenty going on. Image provided by NOAA.
Hurricane Fiona produced strong winds and catastrophic flooding across parts of the northeastern Caribbean over the weekend, especially Puerto Rico, and today it’s the Dominican Republic’s turn. Once it moves back into the Atlantic later today, a northward track is expected for the next few days. It may bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos as well as parts of the southeastern Bahamas over the next few days, but as it moves over open water, additional strengthening is expected. By the latter half of the week, it could have Bermuda in its sights. Its still too early to determine what, if any, impact it will have on Bermuda, but anything from a glancing blow to a direct hit as a major hurricane is possible. By the end of the week,, it should be heading out into the North Atlantic and starting to weaken, though residents of Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland should keep an eye on Fiona.
Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Bermuda Weather Service.
Out West, an early-season storm will bring some much-needed rainfall to parts of California over the next few days. The rain began Sunday, but will continue into Tuesday or even Wednesday in parts of the state. Some spots could pick up 1-2 inches or more by the time everything winds down. This will help put a small dent in the ongoing drought across the state, but will also be a big help to the firefighting efforts for the numerous wildfires burning across the region.
California will get some much-needed rain over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Heat will return to the nation’s midsection over the next few days, gradually spreading into parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Deep South as the week goes on. High temperatures well into the 90s and possibly lower 100s are expected, which is 10-to-20 degrees above normal for late-September. Many record high temperatures are expected over the next several days.
Record highs are expected in many locations from the Plains to the East Coast this week. Images provided by WeatherBell.
While heat covers much of the nation, late in the week, cool weather will be the story from the Northern Plains to the Northeast. A strong cold front will produce some rain across these areas during the latter half of the week, but behind that front, much cooler air will settle in. Frost and freezing temperatures may bring an end to the growing season from parts of the Great Lakes into northern New England by the end of the week. In fact, as that front moves through, the rain may mix with or even change to wet snow across some of the higher elevations of northern New York and New England Thursday night and early Friday. While this is a bit early, it’s not that unusual for some of the higher peaks to see snow in late September. Atop New Hampshire’s Mt. Washington snow has already been reported a couple of times this month.
Temperatures will be below to well below normal across the Northeast at the end of the week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.
A rather active week is expected across much of the nation for the first full week of meteorological autumn.
High pressure dominates the northern tier of states to begin the week. Image provided by NOAA.
A large ridge of high pressure remains in place across the West for a good portion of the upcoming week. As a result, the intense heat wave will continue from the Front Range of the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast. Daily high temperatures well into the 90s and 100s are expected across the region, with many places across parts of interior California and the Southwest likely topping 110 degrees. Dozens of record highs are expected during each of the next several afternoons. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for many locations. The heat, combined with low humidity and gusty winds will also result in a high fire danger for many areas. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for parts of the region. In addition to some of the ongoing fires, any new ones that develop could rapidly spread in this pattern.
Many record highs are expected across the West during the next several afternoons. Images provided by WeatherBell.
Meanwhile, a slow-moving frontal system will bring some heavy rain from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast over the next few days. Many places could receive 1-3 inches of rain over this time frame, with some heavier totals possible. In the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, this is not good news, as it will likely result in flooding in many locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the area. From the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, the rain will be very welcome, despite much of it falling on Labor Day, as much of the region has been under a severe to extreme drought for the past few months. Any rain that falls is welcome, as it will help to replenish the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the region. With all of the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be as much as 6-12 degrees below normal across parts of the area today and again on Tuesday.
Heavy rain is expected across parts of the East today and Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Across the Southwest, what has been a very wet monsoon season thus far has slowed day in recent days, but that could change later this week. Tropical Storm Kay developed off the southwest coast of Mexico on Sunday. The current forecast calls for it to strengthen into a hurricane in the next few days while turning northwestward, paralleling the coast of Mexico. It could impact parts of the Baja California peninsula later this week. By the end of the week, the moisture from the system (or what’s left of it), may spread into parts of the Southwest, enhancing the monsoon once again and bringing the threat for flooding to parts of Arizona and southern California.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Kay. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we have two named systems in the Atlantic – Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. Danielle is centered about 950 miles west of the Azores, but should start heading off toward the northeast and east over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, but as it moves over colder waters over the next few days, it will weaken and likely will become extratropical later this week. It may bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the British Isles by the end of the week, after the system currently doing the same weakens and moves away from the UK.
Forecast track for Hurricane Danielle. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Earl is gradually strengthening in the waters north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Heavy rain and gusty winds will wind down across the islands today as Earl pulls away to the north. The forecast for Earl is fairly simple of the next day or two – it will continue in a general northerly direction while strengthening, and could become a hurricane. Beyond that, there is some uncertainty. Most of the models show an upper-level trough moving across the central Atlantic pulling Earl off toward the northeast and out into open water. However, if that trough does not pull Earl out to sea, it could continue northward or even northwestward, which would increase the threat Earl may pose to Bermuda, before another trough comes along and eventually does send Earl out to sea.
Track forecasts for Tropical Storm Earl from several ensembles. Image provided by Tomer Burg
In the Western Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Hinnamnor will pass close to or across southeastern portions of South Korea today, with top winds likely still in the 100-110 mph range. Storm surge will likely be confined to just a small portion of the South Korean coastline, but that area includes the city of Busan, the 2nd most populous city in South Korea. Busan is also the 6th busiest port in the world. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across much of the Korean Peninsula, but also could impact parts of Japan over the next few days as the system heads northeastward while weakening and becoming extratropical.
Forecast track for Typhoon Hinnamnor. Image provided by the Korean Meteorological Administration.
The weather pattern across the US isn’t that active at the moment, but the Atlantic may be starting to get active finally.
Despite a couple of wavy fronts, the weather across the US isn’t that active. Image provided by NOAA.
A persistent trough of low pressure will remain in place across the Southeast and Florida for the next few days. This will act as a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. Severe weather will be very isolated in nature, but some heavy rainfall totals are possible, especially across much of Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal portions of the Carolinas. Many locations will receive 1-3 inches of rain over the next several days, with isolated totals in excess of 5 inches possible in spots. This will likely lead to some flash flooding.
Some heavy rain is expected across parts of Florida and the Southeast this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Out West, where the monsoon has been quite active this summer, it will slow down this week, allowing heat to return. Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for parts of the Desert Southwest and Southern California. Triple digit highs are likely across the Southwest and interior California several days this week, as well as portions of the interior Northwest. Highs will soar well past 90 across much of the remainder of the West through the week, with numerous record highs possible each afternoon into next weekend.
Record highs are possible every day this week across the Western US. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Meanwhile, as we enter the peak of hurricane season, the Atlantic appears to be awakening from its 2 month slumber. There are several areas that the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on, but the most immediate threat appears to be a tropical wave and associated low pressure area several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The area is showing signs of organization, and conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next few days. Most of the forecast the system to head northwestward for the next few days, passing north of the Lesser Antilles toward the end of the week. In terms of strength, several models either keep the system very weak or don’t develop it at all, and others do allow for some significant development. It could become a tropical depression later this week, but there are still significant questions as to the future of this system or if it even has a future.
Most of the models bring the disturbance in the central Atlantic on a northwestward course. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
There are a couple of other tropical waves we’re keeping an eye on. One of them is in the western Caribbean, and will bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Yucatan and Central America today and tomorrow. Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, some forecast models show the potential for development, but others do not, so that wave will need to be monitored. Another wave will move off the coast of Africa tonight, and take its time crossing the Atlantic this week. Again, there are some models that show the potential for development, but others that don’t, so it will need to be monitored as well.
The upcoming week will feature more heat in Texas and parts of the West, some severe weather in the northern tier of states and the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quiet weather dominates much of the nation to start the week. Image provided by NOAA.
Record high temperatures were observed across much of the Plains states and Texas again on Sunday. In College Station, Texas, the high temperature reached 111 degrees at Easterwood Field. This not only broke the daily record of 109 that had stood since 1917, it broke the all-time record for July of 110, originally set on July 24, 1903, and tied on July 11, 1917. The 111-degree reading is tied with the 111 on September 5, 2000 for the 2nd warmest day in the city’s history, trailing only the 112 recorded on September 4, 2000. The heat will continue across Texas for the next few days, but temperatures shouldn’t be as hot as they were over the weekend. Records are still likely to fall in many spots across the state on Monday, with a few more possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for a large part of the state.
Record highs are expected across Texas again on Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The heat will also continue across the Southwest and interior portions of the West for a good portion of the upcoming week. A few records are possible, but in most cases, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will likely top 110 in Las Vegas for the next few days, and in places like Phoenix and Tucson for most of the week. Triple-digit temperatures are likely across interior California Monday and Tuesday before dropping a little toward mid-week. Heat will also spread into parts of the Interior Northwest by midweek.
As is typical of July, a very hot week is expected in Death Valley, Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A frontal system will move across the northern tier of states over the next couple of the days. With a warm and humid airmass in place, some strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. The severe weather threat Monday exists across parts of the Great Lakes including the Chicago metropolitan area. By Tuesday, the threat will shift into interior portions of the Northeast. With the front not expected to reach the coast until after dark Tuesday evening, it will limit the severe weather threat for the big cities of the I-95 corridor on the Northeast. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding in spots.
Severe weather is possible across interior portions of the Northeast on Tuesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Finally, low pressure is located along a frontal boundary over Georgia this morning. That boundary will wash out near the Gulf Coast over the next few days, but as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf, conditions could become favorable for a low pressure area to form later this week. Whether it does form or not, some heavy rain is expected along the Gulf Coast from northern Florida to Louisiana. Some forecast models show the potential for rainfall totals 3 to 6 inches or higher, which could produce flooding in some areas.
A low pressure area moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico will be monitored for development this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Darby should continue westward over open water for the next several days, well southwest of Mexico. It will likely peak in intensity toward Tuesday, then steadily weaken over cooler water. Some of the remnants of the system could enhance rainfall across Hawaii toward next weekend.
The weather looks quiet across much of the nation this week, but the tropics may be starting to get active.
High pressure will provide much of the nation with quiet weather this week. Image provided by NOAA.
A tropical wave is making its way across the Atlantic, and has been slowly showing signs of organization over the past several days. Conditions are favorable for additional development, and it could become a tropical depression before it crosses the Windward Islands on Tuesday. It should move into the southeastern Caribbean on Wednesday, then track across the southern Caribbean, possibly impacting the ABC islands later in the week. With the system expected to remain fairly far south and close to the northern coast of South America, significant development is not likely, but the system could become a tropical storm as it crosses the Caribbean.
Most of the forecast models track the tropical system across the Southern Caribbean. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’re also keeping an eye on a cluster of thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico. They remain disorganized, but should drift toward the west over the next few days. There is some potential for limited development, though it doesn’t not seem very likely at this time. Whether it develops or not, the area of showers and thunderstorms should move into Texas later this week, bringing some beneficial rainfall to parts of southeastern Texas.
Areas along the Texas Coast really need rainfall to help put a dent in the drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
The heat wave that had been gripping much of Texas and the Deep South has finally broken, and while there’s no extreme heat expected this week, much of the nation will see at least 1 or 2 hot days during the upcoming week. One such area is the Pacific Northwest. Heat starting moving into the region on Sunday, including Seattle and Portland. Today is will spread into parts of southeastern Alaska as well as the Interior Northwest. Spokane, Washington should reach 90 today for the first time this year. Last Wednesday, the city reached 80 for the first time, the latest in the year that Spokane recorded their first 80-degree day. In southeastern Alaska, temperatures will get well into the 70s and 80s in many locations, including Juneau, where some records may be set.
Today will be the first hot day of the year across the Interior Northwest. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The heat will shift into the Plains states by midweek. Temperatures could top 100 across parts of the Northern and Central Plains on Wednesday, with the core of the heat shifting into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday. By the end of the week, it looks like Friday will be a hot day across the I-95 corridor in the Northeast. Temperatures could get well into the 90s from Washington to Boston to start the holiday weekend.
