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Tropical Trouble in the Pacific

Hurricane Season looks to remain quiet across the Atlantic for the remainder of August, but it’s a different story in the Pacific, where there are three storms threatening land right now.

Hurricane Lane has been steadily moving across the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean for the past week while strengthening. As of midday Monday. Lane was centered about 615 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving towards the west at 14 mph. Lane’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 140 mph on Saturday, and have since dropped to 125 mph, meaning it is still a Category 3 Hurricane. It is expected to maintain its current intensity through Tuesday before a more pronounced weakening trend develops.

Computer model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Lane. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin.

The forecast track for Lane is a bit problematic. Lane is expected to continue westward for another day or two before turning more towards the northwest or north. Where it makes that turn is very important, as it will determine what, if any, impact Lane may have on Hawaii. At the very least, we’re looking some rough surf and some gusty winds for parts of the island chain. However, a closer pass brings stronger winds and heavy rain in, especially to some of the northwestern islands.

Map showing all tropical storms and hurricanes that have passed with 75 miles of the Hawaiian Islands. Image provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Hawaii doesn’t get direct hits from hurricanes very often. In fact, since their tropical cyclone records began in 1950, only 3 hurricanes have made direct hits on Hawaii – Hurricane Dot in 1959, Hurricane Iwa in 1982, and Hurricane Iniki in 1992 – all of which hit the island of Kauai . Dot and Iwa were both Category 1 storms when they hit, while Iniki was a Category 4 storm. There have been a lot more tropical storms that have hit the islands, and hurricanes that passed close enough to impact part of the island chain, but only those 3 have had direct impacts.

Satellite photo shows Typhoon Soulik (left) and Typhoon Cimaron (right) in the Western Pacific. mage provided by NOAA.

Heading much farther to the west, Typhoon Soulik is threatening parts of Japan and South Korea. As of midday Monday, Soulik was centered about 415 miles east of Okinawa, moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph. Soulik has maximum sustained winds near 115 mph, and is expected to maintain that intensity for the next 24-36 hours. After that it should start to weaken a bit while turning more toward the northwest as it crosses the Ryukyu islands southwest of Japan. After that, a turn more towards the north and steady weakening are expected as Soulik heads for the coast of South Korea. If the storm makes the northerly turn a little later than currently anticipated, it could remain over the Yellow Sea a little longer, and make landfall in North Korea instead, likely in a somewhat weaker state. Either way, damaging winds heavy rainfall, and flooding are likely across the Korean Peninsula towards midweek.

Typhoon Soulik is expected to hit South Korea later this week. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

A little southeast of Soulik is Typhoon Cimaron, which is pulling away from the Northern Mariana Islands. Cimaron is a minimal typhoon with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, but steady strengthening is expected over the next 24-36 hours. Cimaron is expected to take a northwest track, passing close to Iwo Jima before turning more towards the north by midweek. After that it will likely head towards Japan, with landfall expected later this week as a minimal typhoon, likely around the same time that Soulik is impacting Korea. Cimaron will bring strong winds, and heavy rain to an area that was already recovering from deadly flooding earlier this summer.

Forecast track for Typhoon Cimaron. Image provided by the Japanese Meteorological Agency.

While the Pacific remains somewhat active, the Atlantic is still quiet. While the forecast models show this continuing for the remainder of August, climatology says that the trend won’t continue into September, as the peak of hurricane season is mid-September climatologically. The pattern remains unfavorable for storms to form now, but it remains to be seen if that pattern will continue into September.

Another Early Start to Hurricane Season?

Officially, hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts on June 1 and ends on November 30. In recent years, Mother Nature has not adhered to that calendar, and it appears as though she won’t this year either.

A cluster of thunderstorms centered over the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Caribbean Sea has been slowly organizing over the past several days. Conditions should be favorable for the system to continue to organize as it heads northward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two. The system could become a tropical depression over the Memorial Day Weekend while slowly moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast model tracks for the tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Most of the forecast models are in good agreement that the system should continue northward toward the central Gulf Coast, with slow but steady strengthening expected. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it would be given the name Alberto.

GFS model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday across the Southeast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While gusty winds and storm surge are threats near where the system makes landfall, but far, the bigger threats are heavy rain and flooding. The shield of heavy rain will extend far from the center, bringing heavy rain to much of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast during the Memorial Day Weekend. Widespread totals of 2-5 inches are expected, with localized totals in excess of 10 inches possible in some areas. Flood watches have already been issued for parts of the region, and more are expected to be issued in the coming days.

Location where all tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific during the last 10 days of May. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Last year, the hyperactive season got off to a very early start when Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the central Atlantic on April 19. The 2016 season got an even earlier start when Hurricane Alex formed on January 14 and Tropical Storm Bonnie developed on May 27. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana formed on May 8, and made landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on May 10, the earliest landfalling storm on record in the United States. Based on data from 1966-2009, the first named storm in the Atlantic doesn’t normally develop until July 9 and the first hurricane doesn’t develop until August 10.

Name List for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

An early start is not always a harbinger of what the season will bring. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on Thursday, and it calls for a 35 percent change for an above normal season, a 40 percent chance for a normal season, and a 25 percent chance for a below normal season. An average season consists of 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 become major hurricanes. The 2017 season consisted of 17 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes and 6 were major hurricanes. These storms produced an estimated $280 billion in damage, making 2017 the costliest season on record. Many parts of the Caribbean, as well as Texas and Florida are still struggling to recover from direct hits by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Maria is the Bigger Threat to Land, not Jose

We’re in the peak of hurricane season now, and as you’d expect, the tropics are getting active, with two tropical storms and a hurricane in the Atlantic, but the biggest threat to land is not the one that’s been advertised for the past few days.

With Irma dissipating over land a few days ago, Jose was the only active tropical system in the Atlantic for a few days, and thus grabbed most of the attention while it was completing a small loop a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas. It weakened to a tropical storm, but has since restrengthened into a hurricane. As of 5pm Saturday, it was centered a little less than 500 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph. It was moving towards the north at about 6 mph. The forecast for Jose for the next 48 hours is fairly easy. It will continue to head northward around the edge of a large high pressure area. While it remains over very warm water, there is still plenty of wind shear aloft, and the wind shear will counteract the warm water, preventing much, if any, additional intensification. It will produce rough seas for much of the western Atlantic, and also create a high risk of rip currents from New England to the Carolinas.

Jose will will produce rough seas and rip currents across much of the East Coast over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Tuesday, Jose will start to move over colder waters as it passes north of the Gulf Stream, so it should start to weaken. At the same time, it will start to encounter westerly winds aloft, which will turn it more towards the northeast and eventually east. On this track, the center should pass about 100 to 150 miles south and east of Cape Cod as a weakening tropical storm. By this point, the storm may not even be completely tropical any more, and starting the transition into an extratropical system. It will pass close enough to bring gusty winds and some rainfall into southeastern portions of New England, but the impacts will be similar to a fall nor’easter across the region. The biggest impacts will be across Cape Cod, where some wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible. Coastal flooding will also be an issue, as tides are running high this week with the New Moon on Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier shouldn’t cause any flooding issues, and will actually be beneficial, as some parts of the region have been dry lately, with some drought conditions starting to reappear.

Model forecast for the track of Hurricane Jose. Image provided by TropicalTidbits.

Well out in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Lee. As of 5pm Saturday, Lee was centered about 720 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving towards the west at 10 mph. Lee has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Lee is expected to continue on a general west to west-northwest track for the next few days. While some modest strengthening is possible over the next day or two, the long-term outlook is for Lee to weaken by early next week, and probably dissipate over the open waters of the central Atlantic, well away from any land areas.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Lee. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

While Jose has been grabbing the headlines, and Lee remains weak, Tropical Storm Maria has formed east of the Lesser Antilles, and this storm will likely grab most of the attention over the next few days, especially after Jose starts to move away from the East Coast.

Tropical Storm Maria formed Saturday afternoon east of the Lesser Antilles. As of 5pm Saturday, it was centered about 620 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving towards the west at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Maria could become a hurricane on Sunday. A hurricane watch has already been issued for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, with a tropical storm watch in effect for the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings are likely to be issued tonight and Sunday.

Model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Maria. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Maria is expected to cross the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Monday. It should pass farther south than Irma, which will spare the islands that were devastated from another direct hit. Once it gets past the Antilles, it will turn more towards the northwest, and head towards the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for Tuesday into Wednesday. It could become a strong hurricane by this point, so residents on this region, still trying to cleanup after Irma, need to play close attention to Maria.

Irma Heads for Florida, Jose for Barbuda, and Katia for Mexico

The last few weeks have felt a lot like a Hollywood disaster movie, but not only have the disasters been real, they’re going to get worse in the next few days.

Satellite loop showing from left to right, Hurricanes Katia, Irma, and Jose. Loop provided by NOAA.

As of 11pm Friday, Hurricane Irma had regained Category 5 strength with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph. It was centered about 300 miles south-southeast of Miami, very close to the Camaguey Archipelago on the north coast of Cuba, moving towards the west at 13 mph. Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for most of Florida, as well as Cuba, with Hurricane Watches for much of the remainder of northern Florida. Its intensity into early Saturday will depend on how long it interacts with the Cuban coastline. Even it were to weaken a bit, it could very easily regain Category 5 status on Saturday, and will likely make landfall in Florida on Sunday as a Category 4 or 5 storm.

Computer model forecasts for the track of Irma. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Irma will continue on a general west to west-northwest track early on Saturday, as it moves around the southern edge of a ridge of high pressure. At some point in the next 12-18 hours, it’ll reach the southwestern edge of that ridge and make a sharp right turn. Exactly when that turn occurs is key to determining where it will make landfall. Right now, it looks it’ll move across the Florida Keys, and then make landfall in southwestern or western Florida on Sunday. This may put cities such as Naples, Fort Myers, and possibly Tampa in the eyewall on Sunday. The current track brings the storm northward, which means that for Sunday into early Monday, the storm will head right up the west side of Florida. While it’ll be weakening once the center is inland, it should maintain hurricane strength until it gets close to the Florida/Georgia border. That means, hurricane conditions for much of the state, except possibly the Panhandle. The worst conditions will be in the eyewall, just to the right of the center. With the storm heading northward, that means east of the center. some of these locations will see sustained winds of 100-125 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Along Florida’s heavily populated east coast, cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach may be outside the eyewall, but will still see sustained winds of 60-80 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Even places farther to the north, such as Orlando, may see wind gusts upwards of 100 mph. While flooding won’t be on the scale of Harvey, rainfall totals of 8-16 inches and locally heavier are possible across Florida, which will lead to some flooding problems. In addition, storm surge of 10-20 feet will inundate portions of southwest Florida near where it makes landfall, with lesser storm surge farther to the north and along the east coast.

Model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Jose. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

While all attention has been focused on Irma, Hurricane Jose has blown up into a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. As of 11pm Friday, Jose was centered a little more than 265 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph, which is just below Category 5 strength. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next day or two. Jose should continue towards the west-northwest for another day or so before turning more towards the northwest. Unfortunately, that track will bring Jose very close to the islands in the northern Leeward Islands. These are the same islands that Irma just devastated a couple of days ago. Hurricane Warnings have been posted for many of these islands, with Tropical Storm Watches farther south and west. The Tropical Storm Watches do not indicate that weakening is expected. They just show that those islands should be far enough from the center that they will “only” receive tropical storm conditions, and not hurricane conditions. Once Jose gets past the islands, things get a little more murky. Jose should head into the open Atlantic and start to weaken, but it will also slow down, and perhaps stall as high pressure builds in to its north. By the middle of next week, there is plenty of disagreement among the models as to where Jose will go. Some models have the high pressure area retreating, which will allow Jose to head out into the open Atlantic. Others have the high pressure area strengthening, which would send Jose westward, towards the Bahamas and possibly the East Coast. It is too early to figure out which solution is more plausible at this point. So, we may be dealing with Jose at some point again next week.

GFS model forecast for rainfall across Mexico over the next 4 days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Finally, in the Gulf of Mexico we have Hurricane Katia. As of 11pm Friday, Katia was making landfall on the Mexican coastline near Tecolutla, about 115 miles northwest of Veracruz. Katia is moving toward the west-southwest at 7 mph and will continue to push farther inland overnight. After peaking earlier in the day as a Category 2 Hurricane, with top winds near 100 mph, Katia’s top winds are down to 75 mph, and it should weaken into a tropical storm overnight. Katia should rapidly weaken on Saturday as it encounters the mountainous terrain of Mexico. While this will keep wind damage confined to coastal areas, it makes the threat of flooding and mudslides even worse. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches and locally heavier are likely in this area over the next few days.

Another tropical wave will emerge from the coast of Africa this weekend. Several computer models show the potential for that system to develop as it moves across the Atlantic next week, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that system over the next several days.

Irma Slams the Antilles and Virgin Islands, Jose and Katia Also Bear Watching

While Hurricane Irma is rightfully grabbing all the attention, there are two other tropical storms that could be threats to land in the coming days.

Visible Satellite photo of Hurricane Irma early Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

After moving across Barbuda, St. Barts, and St. Martin overnight, the eye of Hurricane Irma was moving across the British Virgin Islands early Wednesday afternoon. When Irma moved across Barbuda last night it produced sustained winds of 118 mph with a gust to 155 mph, before the anemometer failed at an automated observing station. Sustained winds of 106 mph with a gust to 131 mph were reported at Buck Island in the US Virgin Islands, while a wind gust to 113 mph was also reported this afternoon in Estate Bovoni on St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands. Irma should continue moving west-northwestward today, with the eye passing just north of St. John and St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands. While this places these islands in the southern eyewall, things could actually be worse. The strongest winds in the storm have been observed in the northern eyewall, which will remain over open water. Maximum sustained winds in this part of the storm are estimated to be near 185 mph, making Irma one of the strongest storms ever in the Atlantic.

The most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, ranked by maximum sustained winds. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Mt. Holly, NJ.

Irma’s southern eyewall will likely move across northern Puerto Rico, possibly including the San Juan area. Hurricane strength winds were already moving into Culebra early Wednesday afternoon, with gusts as high as 86mph reported. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected across the Virgin Islands and northern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches with locally heavier amounts, will likely produce flooding in some areas. Lesser rainfall totals are expected across St. Croix as well as southern Puerto Rico.

Once Irma moves away from Puerto Rico, the obvious question becomes “where will it go next?” Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as the storm will likely pass just north of those nations, but close enough to bring hurricane conditions to coastal locations. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. Right now, Irma is expected to pass right across some of these islands as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane later Thursday into Friday. Beyond that, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

Track forecasts from the various members of the ECMWF Ensemble. Image provided by the University at Albany.

Track forecasts from the various members of the GFS Ensemble. Image provided by the University at Albany.

Hurricane Watches have been posted for eastern Cuba as well as the Central Bahamas. Irma could be impacting either location by later on Friday. For the past few days, many of the forecast models showed the potential for Irma to head west-northwestward, possibly impacting or even making landfall in northern Cuba before making a sharp right turn and heading towards southern Florida. However, since last night, many of these models have started to shift a bit, now showing that turn coming earlier, with Irma possibly making landfall in south Florida this weekend, or possibly turning even earlier, and heading northward towards the coast of Georgia or the Carolinas. At this point, it’s still too early to tell which scenario will be more plausible. Anyone with interests from North Carolina to Florida and the Bahamas should pay very close attention to Irma, and be prepared to take action on short notice.

Model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Jose. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jose is nearing hurricane strength in the Central Atlantic Ocean. As of midday Wednesday, Jose was centered about 1135 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving towards the west-northwest at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, and Jose will likely strengthen into a hurricane later today. Jose is expected to turn more towards the northwest while strengthening over the next few days. While the storm is currently expected to pass north and east of the Leeward Islands, it wouldn’t take much of a shift in the track to bring the storm closer to areas that got hammered by Irma last night.

Rainfall forecast for the next 5 days from the GFS model. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We also have Tropical Storm Katia in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At midday Wednesday, Katia was centered about 175 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico, drifting east-southeastward at 5 mph. Katia has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Katia should start to drift more towards the south and southwest while strengthening over the next day or two. Katia could become a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico towards the end of the week. Katia may produce heavy rain across parts of Mexico, with rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches possible leading to flooding and mudslides across the area.

Where Will Irma Go?

After dominating the headlines for a week and a half, Harvey will finally bid adieu to the United States this weekend. However, Hurricane Irma is about to take center stage, and will likely remain in the spotlight for a while.

Estimated rainfall between 6am CDT august 25 and 6am CDT September 1. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The remains of what was once Hurricane Harvey are moving into Kentucky this evening, producing some heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. This rain shield will move into the Northeast for Saturday into Sunday. Additional rainfall totals will be under an inch in most locations, though some heavier totals are possible. Drier conditions will settle into Texas and the Mississippi Valley for the next few days, which will allow floodwaters to continue to recede.

While Harvey slowly fades away this weekend, all eyes will turn to Hurricane Irma. As of 5pm Friday, Irma was centered about 1500 miles east of the Leeward Islands, heading towards the west at 13 mph. after weakening a little early, Irma completed an “eyewall replacement cycle“, and has resumed strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Model forecast tracks for Hurricane Irma. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Model forecasts for the intensity for Hurricane Irma. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Irma’s immediate future is fairly simple. It will turn a bit more towards the west-southwest this weekend then back towards the west and eventually west-northwest early next week. Wind shear will be relatively low, and water temperatures are warm, meaning that the storm should intensify, possibly becoming a Category 4 or even a Category 5 storm over the next few days. However, if Irma were to undergo another eyewall replacement cycle, it would weaken while that process takes place.

Once we get towards the middle of next week, the questions become a lot more numerous, and for most of them, there are no answers yet. The first question is, how close does Irma get to the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. Right now, most of the forecast models show the storm passing just north of the islands, which would result in just a glancing blow. However, this far out, these models typically can be in error by a couple of hundred miles, so Irma could easily be even farther north with little to no impact, or it could pass near or even south of the islands, which would result in a significant impact. Anyone with interests in this region should keep close tabs on Irma’s progress over the weekend.

Track forecasts from the various members of the CMC Ensemble. Image provided by the University at Albany

Once it gets past the northeastern Caribbean, things get even more murky. As you can see from the images above, different models have a wide variety of track forecasts. Some of the solutions include tracks across the islands of the northern Caribbean, into Florida and/or the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anywhere along the East Coast, into Atlantic Canada, or out to sea. Any of these tracks could be right, and there is simply no way to tell if any one of them has any more validity than any other one. Despite the hype machine already kicking into overdrive on the internet, there is simply no way to tell what, if any, impact Irma may have of any land areas. The best advice for now is to simply monitor Irma’s progress. Irma is still at least 8-10 days away from having any potential impact on the United States. We probably won’t have a better of idea as to whether Irma will be a threat or not until the early-to-middle portion of next week.

Harvey Batters Texas, Irma Forming Near the Southeast?

Record rainfall and catastrophic flooding continue across Texas today, especially in the Houston metropolitan area, and things won’t improve much any time soon.

As of midday Monday, Tropical Storm Harvey was centered close to the Texas coastline near Port O’Connor, drifting southeastward at 5 mph. This motion will bring the center of Harvey back out over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A lot of dry air has wrapped around the south side of Harvey’s circulation, with the bulk of the heavy rain bands north and east of the center. Despite moving back over the Gulf, only some slight intensification is expected over the next day or two. Harvey currently has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf Coast from High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of Cameron, to Intracoastal City.

Computer model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Harvey. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will drop into the Ohio Valley over the next day or two, and this will draw Harvey northward, finally pulling it out of the region. A second landfall, likely as a tropical storm, is expected towards the middle of the week somewhere along the Upper Texas or western Louisiana coastline.

Major to record flooding is occurring on many rivers across southeastern Texas. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Houston.

Rainfall totals of 15 to 40 inches have already been reported across the region, especially across the Houston metropolitan area. The highest reported total as of midday Monday was 39.72 inches in Dayton, about 35 miles northeast of Houston. Bands of heavy rain will continue to rotate in from the Gulf across southeastern Texas and adjacent Louisiana over the next few days. An additional 10 to 20 inches of rain may fall across the region over the next few days, which will only worsen conditions across the area.

Rainfall forecast for the next 7 days across the Gulf Coast. This does not include rain that had already fallen through 7am Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While all the attention has been focused on Texas, another disturbance produced heavy rain across portions of Florida over the weekend. The hardest hit area was southwestern Florida, where 6 to 12 inches of rain was reported over the weekend. A few locations in Manatee County, near Sarasota, had isolated totals of up to 22 inches. That disturbance moved into the Atlantic again on Sunday, and was designated by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Tropical Cyclone 10. The system remains poorly organized as of midday Monday, without a well-defined low-level center of circulation. However, conditions are favorable for a subtropical or hybrid storm to form over the next day or so. If it does become a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be given the name Irma.

Computer model forecast for the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 10. Image provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to coastal portions of the Carolinas through Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina northward to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. South of Surf City, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The system should head in a general northeasterly direction for the next day or two, with the possibility that the center moves over inland over eastern North Carolina briefly. Once it emerges from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, it will start to head more in an east-northeast direction and accelerate. It will also likely lose any remaining tropical characteristics by then, becoming an extratropical system. At this point, it will likely strengthen into a fairly strong gale, which could brush coastal New England or Atlantic Canada with some gusty winds and possibly some rainfall along the coast towards midweek. This will also increase the threat of rip currents at beaches, as large waves will impact the coastline.

The system will generate rough seas across the Northwest Atlantic by midweek. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another tropical wave has also emerged from the coast of Africa. It will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Cape Verde Islands over the next day or two and then continue westward across the Atlantic. Conditions look favorable for development at this time, and another tropical depression could form later this week.

Harvey Threatens Texas With Heavy Rain

Almost a week after producing Tropical Storm conditions across the Windward Islands, and four days after weakening to a tropical wave, Harvey has regenerated into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche. Now, it’s setting it sights on Texas.

As of 12am EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Harvey was centered about 440 miles southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Harvey was drifting toward the northwest at 2 mph. A hurricane watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield, to San Luis Pass. Tropical Storm Watches have also been issued from Port Mansfield southward to Boca de Catan, Mexico, and from San Luis Pass northward to High Island, Texas. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island.

Computer model forecasts for the track of Tropical Depression Harvey. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Current indications are that Harvey should head northwestward while strengthening over the next day or two. Harvey should be approaching the Lower or Middle Texas coast on Friday. With warm water and low wind shear, there is a chance that Harvey could rapidly intensify on Thursday, and could make landfall as a hurricane.

Once Harvey makes landfall, it will start to slow down and its movement could become erratic as there will be little in the way of upper-level wind flow to steer the storm. Many models are now showing a turn towards the west or southwest for a day or two, others show the storm nearly stationary once inland, and still others have the storm drift off towards the east or northeast after landfall. There’s also the chance that Harvey stalls before moving inland. The exact track that Harvey takes will have a huge impact on the region for obvious reasons.

While wind and storm surge are obviously threats to Texas, especially along the coast near where Harvey makes landfall, by far, the bigger threat at this point is flooding from heavy rainfall. The slow movement once inland means that heavy rain will continue across portions of the region for several days, leading to widespread, severe flooding, especially across parts of south and southeast Texas.

GFS model forecast for rainfall across Texas for the 7 days ending Wednesday August 30. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Some models, such as the one above, are showing the possibility for 10-20 or more inches of rain across parts of the area over the next week. Some models are showing extreme totals of 30-40 or more inches during the same time frame. while these numbers seem unbelievable, they wouldn’t be unprecedented. Hurricanes that move out of the Gulf of Mexico are usually loaded with tropical moisture and if they are moving slow enough, can produce several months worth of rainfall in a matter of days. In 1978, Tropical Storm Amelia dropped 48 inches of rain on Media, Texas. This is the most rainfall recorded from a single storm anywhere in the United States. Just one year later, Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. In Alvin, Texas, just west of Houston, a total of 42 inches of rain was recorded in just 24-hours. This set a new record for 24-hour rainfall in the contiguous United States. More recently, in 2001, Tropical Storm Allison produced 20-40 inches of rain on portions of southeastern Texas and Louisiana.

NAM model forecast for rainfall across Florida through Sunday morning August 27. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure is drifting across Florida this evening. This system will produce heavy rain across portions of the Sunshine State over the next few days, which could lead to some localized flooding. Once it drifts back into the Atlantic, it will need to be watched for signs of development. While the most likely track for the system, if it develops at all, is to head northeastward out into the open Atlantic, there are some models that show the potential for the system to impact portions of the East Coast early next week.

The Pacific is Not Living Up to It’s Name

The tropics remain quiet in the Atlantic right now, but it’s a different story in the Pacific, where there are currently six active systems, three in the East, and three in the West.

Starting with the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary is the strongest on the storms as well as the closest to land. At midday Monday, Hillary was centered about 340 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving towards the west-northwest at 8pm. This track is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the system away from Mexico. Hilary has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, but it is in an environment favorable for strengthening, and is expected to become a major hurricane over the next 24-36 hours. After that, a gradual weakening trend is expected.

Forecast track for Hurricane Hilary. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

A little farther to the west is Tropical Storm Irwin. Irwin was centered about 750 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at midday Monday, drifting westward at 3 mph. Irwin has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Irwin should become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. The forecast track for Irwin is highly uncertain at the moment. Several of the computer models show an erratic motion for the storm, as it may interact with Hurricane Hilary. Irwin will remain over open water for the next several days, and is not a threat to any land areas.

Model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Irwin. There is plenty of disagreement among the models on its eventual track. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Heading westward again, we come to Tropical Storm Greg. Greg’s top winds peaked at 60 mph on Friday, and has been slowly weakening over the weekend. At midday Monday, Greg had top winds near 45 mph, and additional weakening is expected over the next few days. Greg was centered a little more than 1500 miles east of Hawaii, and was moving towards the west at 12 mph. Greg should dissipate well east of Hawaii later this week.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Greg. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

In the Central Pacific, there are no active storms at the moment. However, what’s left of Hurricane Fernanda is moving across Hawaii today, producing some gusty winds along with locally heavy showers and thunderstorms on Oahu and Kauai. At one point last week, Fernanda was a Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 145 mph over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific.

Satellite photo showing 3 active systems and another potential tropical system in the Western Pacific. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. — Satellite photo showing three active systems and another potential tropical system in the Western Pacific. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

In the Western Pacific, we also have three active systems, and another area being watched for development.

Forecast track for Typhoon Noru. Image provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The strongest of the storms is Typhoon Noru (07W). Noru has been meandering around in the waters well southeast of Japan for several days, and this erratic motion should continue for another day or so before a general westward motion takes over. Noru currently has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, and some further strengthening is possible over the next 36 hours. Noru will impact the Bonin Islands over the next few days with heavy rain and gusty winds.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Kulap. Image provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

To the east of Noru is Tropical Storm Kulap (09W). Kulap is gradually weakening, and this should continue over the next few days. Kulap currently has top winds near 50 mph, but should weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday. Kulap should continue moving off to the east, heading into the open waters of the Western Pacific.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Sonca. Image provided by the Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

The storm that is the biggest threat to populated areas at the moment is Tropical Storm Sonca (08W). Sonca is currently centered about 160 miles east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam, moving towards the southwest at 4 mph. A turn more towards the west is expected over the next 24 hours, with landfall in Vietnam expected by early Tuesday. Sonca has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. The biggest threat from Sonca is flooding from heavy rains. Sonca could produce rainfall totals of 10-20 inches or more in parts of Vietnam and Laos.

GFS Ensemble forecast for the track and strength of a tropical disturbance in the Western Pacific Ocean. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

In addition to all the active systems, an area of disturbed weather about 375 miles northwest of Palau in the Western Pacific Ocean is being monitored for development. Conditions should be favorable for the system to develop over the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves northward. Current computer model forecasts show the possibility of additional strengthening later this week, with the potential for a threat to the Philippines or Taiwan towards the end of the week.

October in the Northeast Means a Little Bit of Everything

October can be a time of change in the Northeast. While the first thing that comes to mind is the changing colors of the foliage across the region, the weather also changes, sometimes quite frequently. That’s what we’re going to be dealing with for the next few days.

Unseasonably warm weather was observed across much of the Northeast for the past few days, with high temperatures soaring well into the 70s and 80s across much of the region. This resulted in dozens of record high temperatures. However, some changes are coming, and the warm weather will be a distant memory within the next 24-48 hours.

Record high temperatures broken across the Northeast on Monday October 17 and Tuesday October 18. Image provided by NOAA.

Record high temperatures broken across the Northeast on Wednesday October 19. Image provided by NOAA.

A cold front moved across the region on Wednesday with little fanfare. That front will stall out to the south of New England overnight. On Thursday, a wave of low pressure will start to approach from the west. This will spread rain and showers into the area. Some of the rain will be heavy, especially from New York into Pennsylvania late Thursday into Friday. With rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally up to 5 inches expected, some flooding is likely. Across New England, where a serious drought is ongoing, rainfall will be much lighter, with most locations likely receiving under half an inch of rain.

Expected rainfall through Friday evening across the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As that wave of low pressure moves into Upstate New York on Friday, it will lift that cold front northward across the region as a warm front once again. While Friday won’t be as warm as the past few days, high temperatures will still get into the 60s and lower 70s. With dewpoints also in the 60s, it will be a rather muggy day for mid-October.

Computer model forecasts for the track of a tropical disturbance in the Bahamas. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Meanwhile, there is a tropical disturbance brewing near the Bahamas. Upper-level conditions are somewhat favorable for development, and the system could become a tropical depression or subtropical storm on Thursday. The system will likely head northward, moving towards the Gulf of Maine and merging with the cold front approaching from the west as we head into the weekend. This will bring another round of heavy rainfall into Maine and Atlantic Canada, areas that were hit hard by heavy rain from Hurricane Nicole just a week ago.

Expected rainfall between Friday evening and Sunday evening across the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the system moves into southeastern Canada, it is expected to stall out under an upper-level low pressure area and become a strong extratropical system. It will drag a cold front across the Northeast, bringing much colder air into the region. With strong low pressure nearby and much colder air filtering in, rain will change over to snow across portions of Upstate New York and Northern New England. While the snow will be confined mainly to the higher elevations, this is the first accumulating snow of the season across the area. Several inches may accumulate across parts of the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains.

Expected snowfall through Monday evening across the Northeast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While there could be a few wet flakes mixed in with some of the rain across lower elevations of Central New England, accumulating snow is not expected.Sunday will be a chilly day, with highs only in the 40s and 50s across much of the Northeast. These readings are 10-20 degrees below normal. Of course, any mention of snow in October across the Northeast will make residents think back just a few years to the pre-Halloween snowstorm that dropped 1-2 feet of snow across parts of the region, setting numerous records. While this system won’t come anywhere close to that, it should make for some spectacular photos of snow-capped mountains and valleys filled with colorful foliage early next week.

Snowfall from the Halloween snowstorm of 2011. Image provided by NOAA.

The other thing the storm will do and bring gusty winds to much of the Northeast through the weekend. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph may gust to 40 mph at times, especially across New England. This may result in some spotty wind damage across parts of the area. The other effect it will have is to create rather chilly conditions. Just a few days as experiencing temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, highs will only be in the 40s and 50s across much of the area, with wind chills in the 30s and 40s. This is the type of change that October is known for across the Northeast.