As meteorological summer knocks on the door and many hit the roads, beaches, and head to mountain hikes we wonder what summer will bring this year. Will rain ruin barbecues and camp-outs or will it be so hot that outdoor activities are dangerous.

Currently ENSO conditions are neutral and are forecast to remain so through the summer and fall. We would not expect much of a contribution from ENSO for the summer weather across the U.S.

Sea surface temperatures remain cooler than normal through the tropical Atlantic (which might contribute to a less active tropical season) but are above normal through the mid latitudes of the Atlantic. This could help promote more of a Bermuda high situation as summer rolls along.

The overall weather pattern during May has favored warmth across much of the nation and sometimes this can be a signal for what summer might offer.

Further support for a warmer than average summer continues to come from model forecasts. The EPS long range model from Europe has been maintaining the idea of a dominant ridge across the south-central U.S. for some time and would favor hot weather for a good part of the western and central U.S. Anomalous soil moisture throughout the South and Southeast into the Tennessee Valley may dampen the heat through those areas, but increase humidity levels. The trough noted through the Northeast may allow for episodes of pleasant summer polar air for that region, at least through early summer.

CFS forecasts from NCEP also provide support for a warmer than average summer across parts of the nation, mostly for the west. The combination of occasional troughing across eastern Canada and high soil moisture levels through the South and Southeast may keep the East from being sizzling hot but for the West and Southwest it appears that the heat threat is high for the summer.

NOAA’s summer outlook is looking for warmer than average temperatures across many parts of the nation. The north-central states are favored to be closer to normal based on cooler than average temperatures forecast for July and August. Elsewhere the heat is on according to NOAA.

Most signs point toward warmer than average temperatures across many parts of the nation this summer. Exceptions may be through the South and Southeast where excess rainfall and soil moisture prevent the atmosphere from heating to its’ potential. Early summer temperatures through the Northeast could also be impacted by cooler air from eastern Canada on occasion but as summer grows older we might see the Bermuda high begin to pump warmer air into the Northeast more persistently. The region that appears to be most prone to summer heat this year will be across the West and into Texas where excessive heat may occur off and on due to a more persistent sub-tropical ridge.